Dry spell seen in Cebu this April

CEBU, Philippines — Potential dry condition or dry spell might occur in Cebu this April or May, according to a local official of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in Mactan station.

PAGASA-Visayas chief Alfredo Quiblat Jr. told The FREEMAN that in the weather station’s monthly climate outlook this January, PAGASA warned that either a weak El Niño might occur or not, an impact may still be felt in some areas in the country.

Quiblat pointed out that Cebu might also be affected due to scarce rains projected in the succeeding months.

Recent analysis of PAGASA shows that the sea surface temperatures at the tropical Pacific are still at El Niño levels even ocean temperatures are observed to have slowly cooled down.

Despite ocean temperatures at El Niño levels, PAGASA noted that other atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index do not indicate for El Niño to become fully established.

An El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the unusual warming of the ocean temperatures at the tropical Pacific and its impact to the Philippines include scarce rains that may result in dry conditions or to extreme events like drought.

According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (CPC-IRI), El Niño is seen to continue through the Northern Hemisphere during the spring season from March to May with 65 percent probability.

Majority of international climate models also indicate that the ocean temperatures at the tropical Pacific are likely to persist above El Niño thresholds, meaning “El Niño remains a possibility in 2019.”

Quiblat, however, said that the chances for a weak El Niño to progress has reduced to about 60 percent as compared to previous climate assessment that set the probabilities at 80 to 90 percent.

While this develops, PAGASA cautioned the public, especially to significant sectors like the agricultural industry, that potential “meteorological” dry conditions or dry spell might be occurring in some areas in the country.

PAGASA’s outlook for areas potential for dry condition, dry spell or drought are based from the September 2018 to January 2019 rainfall assessment and the rainfall forecast from February to April 2019.

PAGASA places a certain locality under dry condition if the area experiences two consecutive months of “below normal rainfall conditions” or there is a 21 percent to 60 percent reduction from the average rain the area usually receives.

A certain locality may also be declared under dry spell if for three consecutive months it suffers from “below normal rainfall conditions” or for two consecutive months it experiences “way below normal rainfall conditions” or more than 60 percent reduction of its rainfall average. —/MBG (FREEMAN)