British Chamber discusses economic prospects for 2025

The British Chamber of Commerce Philippines (BCCP) during its event titled, “Forecasting 2025: UK-PH Economic Perspectives” discussed economic forecast and possibility of further monetary easing by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), as reported by Philippine National Bank (PNB) Economist and Research Division Head Alvin Arogo.
In his presentation, Arogo noted that BSP’s focus on domestic factors including inflation for its policy decision, rice inflation has already peaked in August 2024 and has remained flat in December of the same year. He also noted the significance of the lowered tariff rates on agricultural commodities which are extended until 2028 to assist in inflation.
He added that, “As discussed, we are in a low inflation environment and there is also a need to support our GDP growth to be within the aspirations. And those are the two strongest drivers for the potential deduction in local interest rates.” Arogo reported its total baseline forecast to 75 basis points rate, bringing its target RRP rate from 5.75% to 5%.

Recently, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. has also indicated that it may cut interest rates by 50 basis points, where he was quoted in a media session that, “I think that sounds about right, 25 bps (in the) first half, 25 bps (in the) second half. Not every meeting we’ll see a policy rate decline…” The BSP began easing in August 2024, totaling to 75 bps rate cuts by end of last year.
In 2024, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) also reported that the year-to-date average inflation maintained at 3.2%, a significant improvement in comparison to the 6% figure in 2023.
The British Chamber has consistently supported the extension of lowered tariff rates to help manage inflationary pressures and ensure food security through quality British pork and beef exports–maintaining the Philippines as a 2nd top UK export market in Asia, next to China.
BCCP Executive Director/Trustee Chris Nelson has previously noted that, “We’ve been working with the Philippines in terms of food inflation, which is a key factor in the supply, particularly in the export of UK pork. I do say that the atmosphere of foreign investors has improved, I think it can continue with the reduction of further monetary restrictions.”
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