‘Philippines, Tiger Cub economies to ignite global oil demand’

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines, along with four other emerging Southeast Asian nations, is poised to ignite a global oil demand boom over the next five years, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA said the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand – collectively known as the Tiger Cub economies – are poised to roar forward and capture a growing share of global oil demand growth through 2030.

“The group’s oil demand will grow at a relatively fast rate as the energy intensity of their economies accelerates from the low base that is typical for emerging countries,” the IEA said in its latest report.

“This pertains especially to the Philippines and Vietnam, categorized as lower middle-income countries by the World Bank, with Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia classified as higher middle-income,” it said.

The five Asean countries are grouped together as Tiger Cubs for their rapid economic growth, following in the footsteps of the original four Asian Tigers – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Combined, oil demand in the Tiger Cub economies is likely to grow by 980,000 barrels per day to 6.3 million barrels per day by 2030, the IEA said.

In particular, jet fuel and kerosene usage is projected to rise by 3.2 percent annually, while gasoil or diesel consumption is seen inching up by 2.5 percent.

The increases are expected to propel overall fuel consumption growth among the Tiger Cubs, the IEA said.

In the oil industry, a single barrel holds approximately 159 liters.

“These gains, both in absolute and in relative terms, are led by Indonesia. The country’s oil consumption is set to grow by 3.8 percent annually, for a cumulative 470,000 barrels per day in 2030 – the second highest globally after India,” it said.

The Philippines and three other countries, meanwhile, are forecast to see total increases of around 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day each.

Globally, oil demand is seen growing by 2.5 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030, while oil production is forecast to increase by over five million barrels per day to 114.7 million barrels per day by 2030.

“This growth is set to be dominated by robust gains in natural gas liquids and other non-crude liquids,” IEA said.

“The strategic shift toward higher non-crude capacity is driven by strong global demand for petrochemical feedstocks and the development of liquid-rich gas resources,” it added.

The IEA is an intergovernmental organization that works with governments and countries to provide data and analysis on the global energy sector.