UK think tank sees Philippine inflation easing

MANILA, Philippines — UK-based think tank Pantheon Macroeconomics expects inflation to have eased in December after hitting a 14-year high in November.

“My forecast for December’s inflation print is a below-consensus 7.5 percent,” Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist for emerging Asia Miguel Chanco said in an email.

His forecast is below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 7.8 to 8.6 percent outlook for December as well as most economists’ projections.

Chanco said his forecast is “in view of the clear decline in fuel prices toward the end of last year.”

He said the outlook is also supported by the think tank’s expectation of an unwinding of weather-related issues that affected food prices in October and November.

The country’s headline inflation rate rose to eight percent in November from 7.7 percent in October.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) attributed the higher inflation rate in November to the faster increases in food prices.

Other drivers of the higher inflation rate in November are restaurants and accommodation services, as well as furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance.

In the January to November period, inflation averaged 5.6 percent.

Earlier, Deputy National Statistician Divina Gracia del Prado said the December inflation rate should not be above 8.5 percent for the country to meet the revised inflation assumption of the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) of 5.8 percent for 2022.

Last month, the DBCC revised the inflation assumption for 2022 from the previous 4.5 to 5.5 percent due to elevated food and transport costs.

The PSA is set to release inflation data for December today.