Slow economic recovery

Over the past several months, our country very slowly began opening up again, and businesses began to welcome back more employees and customers. It seemed that we were on the road to a slow recovery. Slow, because despite an ardent desire to rebound after the uncertainty of the global pandemic, people and businesses just do not have the resources to come back strong.

Emerging as the pandemic recedes has been a different and challenging journey for everyone. Many people lost jobs, lost businesses, and lost loved ones. While there is a bit of hope for the future, this hope can’t help but be marred by the difficulties of the past and the fear of it happening again. Now that COVID-19 has shown the world what can happen with just one deadly outbreak, it’s terrifying to think that something like that can happen again at any time.

But, people push on despite hardships. That’s the resilience of being human that many talked about at the start of the pandemic. Frankly, when news first broke about COVID, I was among the many that said it would take roughly two years for the world to be able to somewhat right itself again. My daughter and many people around us at the time didn’t want to hear it because it was just too painful to believe.

But fast-forward, and that prediction had a kernel of truth. While we had some breakthroughs during the past 24 hours, we inevitably had to go back indoors again as we grappled with virus strains and vaccine delivery. It was still touch-and-go for a while as we struggled to safely interact again.

Now, we are doing better. More and more people have been vaccinated and boosted. Children aged five to 11 have been vaccinated, and there is a bit more hope in the air. This isn’t to say we shouldn’t still be cautious. There are still many low vaccinated places globally. While they are still building community immunity, strains are still likely to occur and spread.

One of the new ones people are looking at now is Deltacron and BA.2. The Deltacron strain appears to be a merged Delta and Omicron strain. At the same time, BA.2 is the development of the original Omicron, which was dubbed BA.1. While we absolutely must remain cognizant of these strains, there is currently no research that indicates they will be deadlier or result in more hospitalizations and death than their predecessors.

This is good news – for now. Research is still lacking, and we should absolutely keep an eye out on the new variant, but at least it doesn’t appear to have gotten worse. Virus strains will always happen. It’s the same with the flu, which is why people keep getting infected. It mutates and continues to spread. Fortunately – for the most part – we can treat and control it. Though not all cases. Sadly, there will always still be cases that turn lethal.

So we move ahead slowly, but still keep an eye on the rearview because if there is anything the past two years have taught us, it’s that things can turn quickly on a dime.

As we move forward barely out of the jaws of COVID-19, we’re facing another potential economic challenge. We’re barely out of the woods yet, and we’re facing a significant economic battle in the constant surge of oil prices. This pinch is felt worldwide as the conflict continues in Russia and Ukraine. Gas prices have increased repeatedly in the last two weeks and are predicted to continue to do so in the weeks ahead.

This is a serious economic concern because it will impact everything else. As fuel prices soar, the prices of basic commodities will follow as well. And this is on the heels of most people having difficulty earning and saving, and businesses facing challenges growing and making up for the loss from the past two years.

It’s a rock and hard place. Businesses, especially small to medium enterprises, are caught in the middle. While they absolutely want to help employees and raise wages to mitigate the staggering increase in basic commodities, this isn’t always possible because businesses themselves are just barely beginning to see the light at the end of the dark tunnel of these past two years.

It’s challenging for everyone. All sectors are suffering from the surge in fuel prices plus the lingering impact of the shutdowns from the past two years. Recovery is becoming even harder to push forward, with oil prices continuously increasing and the cost of basic goods soaring. So, what should the government and businesses do now? There is no easy answer, and if the conflict rages on longer, we really could be on the brink of another recession.

It’s disheartening to think that we are just beginning to emerge after COVID-19 only to face another difficult battle ahead – both figuratively and literally. While the Philippines hoped to remain neutral, the fact is this Russian-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching consequences for us all. This week, the latest news is that our President has been pushed to take a stand. As of this week, the latest is that the Philippines is ready to back the US by opening bases if the conflict eventually spreads.

Let’s hope it doesn’t reach this point. While Russia remains unpredictable and continues to push the limits, let’s hope that it’s leader realizes the negative impact of this personal vendetta on their country, their people, and the world.