My next president

Who is my president for 2022 to 2028?

Last Friday was the last day to officially file for candidacy for the 2022 presidential election, although the final official list of candidates will be ready only on Nov. 30. This means that any last minute changes may still happen should there be switching, just like what President Duterte did in 2015 for the 2016 presidential race.

Thus, those who are hoping that the daughter will still enter her name can remain hopeful, at least until Nov. 15 when the Commission on Elections closes its doors to any more changes in filings. Who will ultimately run for president is not what today’s column is about, though, although it is pretty much related.

Choosing the country’s 17th president has been tainted by a pandemic. Otherwise, all other ingredients in this political exercise remain much the same: posturing, premature campaigning, intrigues and gossips, and the ruthless behind-the-scene maneuverings – definitely a worthwhile topic for a long-running Netflix original series.

The pandemic has elevated my first criteria for presidential competence to the ability to handle a crisis. If this were the 1992 election when Cory was the incumbent, the crisis would have been on how to deal with a coup.

Pandemic wounds

While many are already anticipating this world to be done and over with COVID-19 in time for Philippine poll opening on May 9, 2022, the wounds of the long lockdowns will still be fresh in the minds of many voters.

This week, the official tally of dead Filipinos from this pandemic will be over 40,000. Very few can now say that they do not know anyone who has died of COVID or who has tested positive or who is trying to recover from hospitalization and its attendant costs.

More than the dead, sick, and those healing, are the suffering of those who have lost their jobs during the quarantines. The poor have become poorer, the middle class emaciated of its savings, and the rich are trying to recover from the income dent caused by suppressed consumer demand since March 16, 2020.

The crisis has escalated from being a health issue to an economic one, and while the country has survived three quarters of negative growth, getting back on track to pre-pandemic status is a bigger crisis that will confront the next president.

Building back

A clear workable agenda on how to build back is a must from the next president. The challenge is to encourage new businesses to rise from the ashes of those that had to be closed down in the most affected sectors: retail, entertainment, restaurants, hospitality, tourism, and travel.

Foreign investments also need to be lured back, and a defined direction on where the country will need such investments most has to be spelled out. What would give the biggest bang for their buck, but still have a significant impact on the country’s long-term recovery?

Only when new businesses are able to rise will joblessness decline. In August, 3.88 million people were without jobs because of tighter mobility restrictions caused by the high prevalence of infections from the Delta variant.

The new president must address how the Duterte government’s Build Build Build infrastructure program will be reinvigorated, not only to create new jobs, but also to pave the way for continued competitiveness of Philippine industries.

Inflation brat

Inflation will continue to be a rebellious brat for the next president, largely caused by disrupted global supply chains of many basic commodities. The Philippines is – and will continue to be – import-dependent on many essential food items.

Periodic reviews of tariffs on many commodities will need to be balanced by strong programs that will strengthen local industries over a defined number of years. The issue of poor competitiveness has been a recurring theme, which the country seems unable to surmount.

The next president should commit to food security by paving the way for more support to the agriculture sector. We have experienced how the African swine fever has infected our hog farms and resulted in a price jump in pork prices and inflation levels.

The era of high oil prices is once again with us. The power sector will need to reshape its long-term perspective, bearing in mind not only the vulnerability of dependence of imported fuels, but also the pressures of fossil fuels on the environment.

Populist themes

Unfortunately, the subject of economics does not easily translate to votes, and neither is it something that many of our presidential aspirants can comfortably talk about. Many of those that have filed their candidacy will likely opt to nominate a strong economic team, similar to what the incumbent had done during his campaign.

The noise in the next seven months will, in most probability, run on populist, almost hackneyed, lines: war against drugs, crime, terrorism, and corruption; unity and healing from divisiveness; fight against poverty; and good governance.

Social media will once again be relied on to deliver results, although the recent pressures on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter in Europe and the US to police content that spreads false messages and conspiracy theories may bring about change and results in some of the old methods used.

During the 2016 election campaign, Filipinos lapped up Duterte’s right-leaning platform, as had happened in many other parts of the world, including America with Donald Trump. Bad handling of the pandemic in their respective countries, however, seems to have scarred the strongman image of leadership.

Or has it?

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