Working hours

Looking out my window in the morning reveals a traffic flow on C-5 that seems to be getting back to pre-pandemic rush hour level. It is the same thing in the other direction in the early evening traffic rush.

Of course, those are mostly private cars and trucks. There are only very few public vehicles on C-5, mostly those tall so-called modern jeepneys that shuttle commuters from within Pasig.

On other routes, DOTr and LTFRB are still trying to figure out what to do with the rest of the traditional jeepneys and buses that are still prohibited from operating. With many office workers still working from home, now is the time to fix public transport for the new normal.

But even without COVID vaccines made available to all Filipinos other than soldiers in the PSG, our government is starting to relax quarantine rules. IATF has allowed movie theaters and game arcades to operate, but metro mayors will keep them closed. Bahala na seems to be the current attitude of IATF.

What do we do to prepare to get back to normal? If the vaccines arrive by mid-year, those horrible traffic and commuting problems will also be back.

Given the slow pace of vaccine procurement, we probably still have about a year to think creatively or use solutions that have worked in other countries. One suggestion to ease commuting woes and create more jobs is staggered work hours… two shifts.

It’s nothing new. Our work hours have been staggered quite a bit since BPOs started operating here. Aside from the eight to five office hours, a good number start working when clients abroad start working. Our cities now never sleep.

Maybe we can do more. Eckie Gonzalez, an MBA from Harvard who runs Medical City, suggested new working hours to create jobs under the new normal and ease traffic flow as well.

He pointed out in a post in one of my Viber groups, that with COVID and the need for social distancing, we cannot afford to risk the health hazards posed by our overcrowded public transport. Staggered work hours will help ensure safer and more comfortable public transport rides.

We need to fire up consumer spending, Eckie says. Fear of infectious spread has slowed our economy considerably and the economy will remain sluggish unless something different happens.

“Tracing mobility statistics through Google shows an 80 percent drop in retail and recreation visits in 2Q, a recovery to 50 percent of normal levels by October, peaking at 90 percent in late December-early January, dropping to 60 percent currently the worst in Asia. The economy is stumped again.”

This is not good for economic recovery. “The Philippine economy is 75 percent consumption-driven. The retail and restaurant sector, together with transport services, accounted for 20 percent of final household consumption in 2019.  Both sectors led the economy down in 2020, dropping output by 41 percent and 31 percent respectively. Their decline vastly exceeded the 5.6 percent decline in final household consumption.”

Eckie further pointed out that “this 5.6 percent decline anchored a steeper 2020 GDP drop of 9.6 percent. Government pump-priming could not compensate for the drastic decrease in investment and international trade activity.” This is why, he said, we need “the promise of an ecosystem that creates more work opportunities.”

Eckie believes “the most cost-effective way to raise production capacity while increasing employment is to formally expand the working day.

“The overall idea in basic microeconomics is to encourage a shift in both the supply and demand curves for labor by creating a flexible working economy, with longer operating hours from say, 5 a.m. – 11p.m.

“COVID has certainly brought us closer to a 24x7 lifestyle, with work-from-home in a digitally driven environment creating flexibility to better balance work and family life. Why not institutionalIze this? Here’s the potential positive impact across sectors.

“At least half the 110,000 transport workforce in Metro Manila lost their jobs, first because of the COVID lockdown, and second as small buses became big buses under an emergent bus rapid transport system. P5.6 billion in government assistance for service contracting can help transport workers get their jobs back in a two-shift operation.

“The greater capital region accounts for two-thirds of the country’s manufacturing economy. Capacity utilization dropped to 65 percent in August from a historical 85 percent pre-COVID, recovering to 72 percent in December.

“Expanded transport working hours have multiplier effects on worker mobility within the region. Lower friction costs from traffic allow more access to labor supply.

“This means that factories can more safely run their shifts with a larger available labor pool – so effective capacity rises with a readily available second shift despite more worker spacing (on the factory floor). The follow-on effect is greater operating scale and greater price competitiveness in manufacturing, particularly for exports.

“Our BPO industry generates $27 billion in yearly service exports. When London begins its day at 8 a.m., it is 2 p.m. anywhere in the Philippines. The prime working shift for the United States market operates during Philippine graveyard hours.

“The availability of regular public transport from 4 a.m. to 12 midnight, or 85 percent of the working day, allows for better shift planning to accommodate global workday peaks and troughs.

“If malls and stores stay open longer to match a regulated two shift economy, there would be more jobs for retail workers, with less crowding in stores and restaurants. But what about security?

“There could be more jobs for security guards, but guess what, with the declining costs of CCTV, sensors, emergent technologies like AI, and telecom bandwidth, network operating centers can manage branch systems centrally at lesser cost. (USSC has an 850-store remittance service network with four to six digital devices per store, monitored solely 24x7 out of our headquarters in Cubao.) And workers will be more comfortable sauntering out in smaller groups most hours of the night.”

Eckie may have something there. Our bureaucrats and entrepreneurs should probably look into this idea and assess its potential benefits. Next Wednesday, we will take up other aspects of Eckie’s plan.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco