Vaccine development can accelerate global recovery next year

MANILA, Philippines — The availability of at least one effective vaccine by next year could lead to a faster than initially expected global recovery as several advanced economies have already curbed the contagion, and the United States could benefit significantly because of good access, said Capital Economics.

In a new research brief, the London-based market intelligence firm revised upward its global GDP growth forecast to 6.8 percent in 2021 and 4.6 percent in 2022.

“News from the pharmaceutical sector makes it ever more likely that at least one effective vaccine will be rolled out for the coming year,” said Capital Economics.

The upward revision takes into consideration the “small bump” to be seen in GDP growth next year in countries like China, Australia and New Zealand which have so far controlled the contagion.

Growth in China, however, will be weaker with the availability of a vaccine because it will lose out from the shift in spending on goods to services.

Europe, where new mobility restrictions are imposed, will see significant upsides with the rollout of a vaccine.

“For the world as a whole, there are reasons to think that activity will not quite return to its pre-virus path in the next two years, but it should come close,” said the firm.

The US, which has more than 13 million COVID-19 cases, is seen to benefit “quickly and significantly” because of good access to vaccines.

Among emerging countries, effect of a vaccine rollout will vary because of access and distribution issues.

In its latest announcement, Pfizer and BioNtech announced that its coronavirus vaccine, which is now on a late-stage trial, is so far 95 percent effective and had no serious side effects.

AstraZeneca also announced that its vaccine, which is on stage 3 trials, could be 90 percent effective in preventing infections.

Vaccine czar Carlito Galvez recently said that the AstraZeneca vaccine would undergo further clinical trials in the country.