Of alternative facts, covfefe, and MAGA

For 18 years I lived in the United States. My education was thoroughly American from kindergarten to Georgetown, except for law school at Ateneo. From 1945 to 1960 I lived in Washington, D.C. I also worked for an American multinational corporation with assignments in New York City and Darien, Connecticut. So I was exposed to American mores and values from a young age. It was no surprise that my critics dubbed me “Amboy” at DFA. But Donald Trump’s presidency, however, did not prepare me for the way he conducted himself in office. The title of this column borrows from the new lexicon he introduced and sums up my characterization of his term. But what appalled and alarmed me – like many others – is how he singlehandedly undermined America’s role as the world’s greatest power and abdicated leadership on global issues so important to humankind.

So, it is with a collective sigh of relief that the free world – mind you we have yet to hear from Vladimir Putin, Xi Jin Ping and Kim Jong-un – greeted the election of President-elect Joe Biden. He is expected to usher profound changes into the current dynamics of America’s engagement with the rest of the world after four years of Trump’s recklessness.

It is too early to project what the US foreign policy will finally look like when the Biden administration is finally assembled and active. Bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control and repairing the severely damaged economy will, of course, be the immediate focus. However, he has indicated areas in US global engagement where he intends to reverse Trump’s isolationist bent to one that is more in keeping with America’s traditional leadership role in global affairs.

In shaping US foreign policy, Biden will clearly have to take into account the diverse views of the moderate, progressive, and liberal wings of the Democratic Party. Then there is the likely Republican controlled Senate that will want to retain the huge number of Americans who supported Trump and his populist views. Those will have an impact on the style and substance of America’s geopolitical and economic engagements.

Reassessment of Phl policies

As this policy takes shape, it would be useful for the Philippines to examine the various elements of its engagement with the US and with other global initiatives, and if necessary, to recalibrate its response accordingly. I would suspect that President Duterte is now making that reassessment with the advice and guidance from knowledgeable individuals, namely Secretary Teodoro Locsin, Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and seasoned politicians and persons conversant with diplomatic and security matters.

As part of my column, allow me to make a check list of what I presume our administration must assess.

Relations with China

It is expected that the Biden administration will tone down Trump’s anti-China rhetoric, but will remain wary of China’s rising military and economic clout and its growing assertiveness in using these to further its global agenda. It will tailor its response more in consultation with like-minded allies rather than going it alone.

The challenge for the Duterte administration is to achieve optimum balance between maintaining good relations with the US and Japan on the one hand, and China on the other. Good relations with China – the Goliath in the neighborhood – are of course imperative. The decision to resume joint exploration in the West Philippine Sea is a good example of a compromise. It should not be a zero-sum game where we do so at the expense of our traditional and reliable allies, the US and Japan, which continue to be our most important security and economic partners.

Let’s face it, as the only country with which we have a mutual defense treaty, the US is our unmistakable security blanket and gives us critical leverage in dealing with China’s territorial ambitions. To remind, the VFA is a key component of that security arrangement. The Duterte administration made a decision to terminate the VFA, but subsequently suspended its termination for six months. It will need to decide whether or not to extend that suspension. It will, of course, be ideal to fully revoke the decision to terminate the VFA to give it certainty. Additionally, it should consider being more vocal in supporting freedom of navigation.

Trade and investments

The Biden administration has indicated that it intends to be less transactional than Trump when it comes to international trade and investments. Biden is expected to return to multilateralism, which includes supporting the WTO and pushing for reforms rather than calling for it to be dismantled. There is the expectation that the US will level-up its interaction in ASEAN and APEC. There is also speculation that they will revive their interest in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump had proposed a bilateral trade deal with the Philippines, but which did not draw support from the bureaucracy. I do not know if there is much appetite from either side this time around. I believe it is worth exploring as it will give us a leg up over the competition. Good economic performance and governance on our part will still be key to attracting US investments. But it would help a great deal if the President welcomes and encourages the US as he has done to an audience of Chinese businessmen.

Climate change and COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer)

Both of these issues have existential consequences to humankind and it has been shown that working together offers the best response. So, it is good news that Biden has given climate change his highest priority and intends to reverse Trump’s anti-environmental actions, including withdrawal from the Paris Convention. The Philippines should look forward to US involvement at the global level and expect more development assistance directed towards mitigating and adopting to the impact of climate change which inherently includes disaster resiliency.

On COVID-19, following the maxim “no one is safe until everyone is safe”, it is good to hear that unlike his predecessor, Biden will now give serious attention to controlling the spread of the virus. The US is leading in the development of safe and effective vaccines that are poised to be ready for deployment by the middle of next year. Although access to US vaccines will most likely be on commercial terms, there is the possibility of US government assistance in facilitating procurement, perhaps even offering favorable financial terms and outright grants.

Clearly, the Pfizer announcement is a positive note for the world, but we have to resolve the requirement of -70 Celsius for cold chain management and the range of activities associated with deploying the vaccine. This will require collaboration among multiple private sector providers and with government. That is something we can learn from the US experience.

National interest vs. presidential pique

Human rights will inevitably crop up, but I believe the Biden administration will approach this in measured tones. That cannot be said of some members of the US Congress, of course. But I would hope that if the issue is raised,  the President  should not take this personally and rather respond appropriately with the big picture and national interest in mind.