More lives, livelihoods to be lost in another ECQ

There’s an elephant in the room, and it keeps staring at us even as much as we ignore it.

For months now, we’ve been getting numbers of how many people are sick of the coronavirus, how many have died, how many have recovered. Lately, we’re seeing statistics of the number of those suspected of being contagious as a result of tracking or contact tracing initiatives.

For those who get and monitor daily updates, it has become increasingly difficult to decipher the accuracy of statistics, especially when you hear how the Inter-agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) and the Department of Health (DOH) have a hard time handling data.

It does not help when a group of research experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) and the newly formed OCTA Research came up with projections that the reproduction (R) rate of the pandemic in the country is now over one, when the ideal is below that number. Their analysis, after all, came from DOH data.

But that’s not the elephant in the room. What everyone is nervously sidestepping is the possibility of bringing Metro Manila and its adjoining environs, which accounts for over half of the nation’s economic productivity, back to an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) status, or even a modified version.

Recovery unlikely

Limiting, or even banning, economic activity once again in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Calabarzon (or the Southern Tagalog mainland) will be a burden that can no longer be withstood. It will, no doubt, significantly weaken the fundamentals that had painstakingly been built over the last three decades – to a point where a recovery will unlikely happen this decade.

It’s not just because production lines are stopped, but more so the result of jobs lost for too long that will weaken purchasing power of households. Estimated job losses will be at 10 million, or one out of seven people with a job before the lockdowns started.

The toll on micro and small business sector is difficult to imagine. Many of those that survived the first quarantine have been severely weakened financially, and an extended harsh lockdown will bring them to bankruptcy, a situation they will not be able to recover from.

If you consider that micro and small businesses are a bigger job generator, the effect on the economy becomes magnified.

Useful data

We are left with no choice, but to take comfort in the assurances of the UP-OCTO research experts that the DOH data, however badly collected, can still provide some useful information that will allow the government to wisely support a continued relaxation of quarantine measures.

The projected number of cases by end June in NCR is at 16,500 cases and deaths at 1,070 using a R rate of 0.96. If the higher R rate of 1.2 is applied, the number of cases in Metro Manila would be 20,500, while deaths would rise to 1,200.

Given the more recent initiatives by the government to address the spread of the virus, namely the strong improvement in contact tracing ability in partnership with local governments, there is scope that the R rate will improve to below one in the next few weeks.

The UP OCTO paper mentions Baguio City as a model for contact tracing, and one that should be used as a model nationwide. The Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG), together with the DOH, would be in the best position to execute training.

Barangay officials have, in most cases, been vigilant in putting up the necessary physical barriers that attempt to control the virus spread, especially in densely populated areas. With better training and deeper understanding of tracing tools they can utilize, they should become better adept.

We just need to strictly follow the rules outlined by the World Health Organization to keep infections from spreading further.

Manageable situation

This means that, even with the rising numbers of cases, the situation is still manageable just as long as the government continues to enforce public health protocols such as social distancing, wearing of masks, observance of frequent washing, and use of disinfectants.

The government should continue to encourage business establishments to shift to cashless transactions, while strengthening the capability of the financial system to protect the public from crimes that involve digital wallets and payments.

Health officials must provide a code for local governments in dealing with decontamination of public places, as well as improving their capabilities in responding to coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 cases and persons suspected of having been exposed to those positively infected.

Our experience in the last three months has shown that we, despite our third world ineptitude when dealing with the pandemic, can successfully implement segmented street quarantines. There just has to be awareness that more vigilance is needed this time when restrictions are being lifted.

That goes for you and me. Continue to keep safe, everyone.

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