Economic recovery may begin in Q3

MANILA, Philippines — The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) expressed optimism that the economy may start to recover in the third quarter as most of the country is now placed under a more lenient form of community quarantine. 

Starting this month, the National Capital Region and several areas transitioned into general community quarantine, the less severe form of the enhanced community quarantine that was enforced for more than two months. 

“The full year outlook is a contraction of two up to 3.4 percent. The first quarter was a contraction of 0.2 percent and the second quarter is likely to be worse,” said Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua during the Sulong Pilipinas virtual press briefing. 

“Beginning June 1, we have gradually shifted most of the country to GCQ so the prospects, I think are getting better.” 

He noted, however, that even with the easing in restrictions on mobility, community quarantines may be remain for some time and strict health standards will continue to be enforced. 

“But that does not mean we have to let down our guard. We will maintain minimum health standards,” he said. 
“We already have a standard decision making tool for shifting to one form of one quarantine to another. And in the decision framework, it is based on case doubling time and critical care utilization rate.” 

The Department of Health recently reported improvements in the case doubling time, specifically on how case doubling time of three to four days in the past months has been prolonged to the current 6.29 days in Metro Manila.

It also reported that the critical utilization rate has not been maximized, indicating that the health system is not yet overwhelmed.

“If we see a deterioration then we cannot relax the quarantine,” Chua said.