Moody’s, Fitch units expect slower Philippine growth

MANILA, Philippines — Moody’s Analytics Inc. and Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research expect a slower economic growth for the Philippines as the costs of the coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 outbreak continue to mount in Asia.

In its latest weekly Asia Pacific economic preview, Moody’s Analytics said the Philippine economy may grow by only 1.8 percent in the first quarter, slower than the 6.4 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter “as the economy starts to feel the impact from a visible slowdown in external demand.”

The projected growth from January to March was also slower than the 5.4 percent growth recorded in the same period last year.

Moody’s Analytics said the pandemic has ravaged Europe and the US, dealing a heavy blow to production and consumption, with several economies under lockdowns.

Moody’s Analytics said the worst is far from over, especially in the US, as the casualties from the pandemic touched new highs in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions further lowered its gross domestic product (GDP)growth forecast to 0.5 percent for 2020 as the extension of the lockdowns weighed on domestic activity as shown by the steeper than initially anticipated contraction in new orders. 

“Our outlook for the Philippines’ economy has become increasingly bearish as the government’s extension of lockdown measures and global growth headwinds prove significant drags,” Fitch Solutions said.

Fitch Solutions said the lockdown would likely bring domestic activity to a near standstill over the two months, with a recovery through the third quarter to be slow as containment measures are gradually eased.