No easy choices

Small and medium enterprises make up 99.6 percent of all registered businesses in the Philippines and employ over 70 percent of the working population. I am worried that by April 14, the scheduled end of this mandated isolation, the country will be an economic wasteland.

But our most immediate problem is making sure food and other urgent assistance reach that segment of our population that has fallen through the cracks when this enhanced coronavirus quarantine was imposed. Press releases cannot calm hungry stomachs.

 The government belatedly imposed drastic community quarantine to deal with this epidemic. Otherwise, the epidemic will just overwhelm our barely existing health care system and cause more deaths and sufferings.

The government was not ready with any plans to make sure the community quarantine took care of other needs of the people. Only Pasig has been reported to have mobile kitchens for displaced workers.

Explaining the necessity of the lockdown was a challenge.

I found an easy to understand explanation. I don’t know who wrote it but it makes a lot of sense and should convince people to stay home for 30 days.

“Heto pala ang ‘scientific reason’ why there is a 30-day community quarantine.

“First you need to slow down the transmission by limiting people movement. The virus will always look for a new host so they can keep on multiplying.

“Once you limit movement of people (host for the virus), you create distance for virus to jump to a new host. When the virus can’t find a new host, they expire by themselves and disappear.

“We cannot contain the virus proliferation in a mobile community. Because everyone will just keep passing it on. Some scientists project the life cycle of the virus maybe from 14 to 21 days. So, we need to starve the virus by that number of days till they expire.

“By partial lockdown we may slow it down. By total lockdown we extinguish it. It’s that simple.

“Let’s all cooperate and support the community quarantine extreme measure to eradicate the COVID-19 virus.

“May God bless the Philippines and may God bless the world!”

That is why as a more susceptible senior citizen, I am staying put at home until April 14.

But we need to take care of people who can no longer provide for themselves because as daily paid workers they no longer have work. Government has promised food and cash assistance, but delivery is taking time. No social safety net is in place.

A very insightful blog, Heneral Lunacy, provides us some insights on the implications of the total lockdown imposed by government this week.

The blog observed that “our Sinophile Government has chosen the Wuhan model which prioritizes health over jobs, but without the accompanying economic safety nets that China provided...”

Here are the issues and concerns as outlined by the blog:

“A. The Trade-Offs- The dilemma for policy makers is the trade-off between the health concerns and the economic and social impact of any remedies: For example, how many jobs should we sacrifice in a quarantine to save a given number of lives? It is physical lives vs economic lives who should carry the burden, a very hard choice.

“B. A healthcare meltdown- Our healthcare infrastructure will be overwhelmed by the speed and scale of the epidemic. With limited resources, healthcare givers have to decide between sacrificing the more vulnerable cases for those with greater hope of life. Somebody has to play God: Who should that be? Are we talking of unattended bodies in hallways left to die?

“C. Policy responses- Should the Philippines adopt the Wuhan or the South Korean/Singaporean model? Which is more effective given our culture, economic and health resources, and geography?

“Italy tried a localized quarantine system in Lombardy like our Manila lockdown, but abandoned it for a national program.

“In the Philippines, the timeline of the crisis will depend on the virulence of the epidemic, our policy responses, our healthcare system, the availability of a vaccine and our economic resources.

“I expect the virus numbers to rise at least until third quarter, hopefully plateau in the six to 12 months thereafter as we learn more and execute better. A vaccine is expected in 12 to 18 months which should cap the crisis.”

Our problem is we don’t really know how many are carrying the virus. Our low early numbers may have made DOH complacent, an impression coming out of statements from the health secretary.

We don’t have enough test kits, so we have not tested enough. Thus, we have no idea who are sick, who are carriers and who died because of it. Epidemiologists should review death certificates since January and any death attributed to respiratory failure should be further investigated and contacts traced.  

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, in an interview with DZMM Teleradyo, said the number of COVID-19 cases in the country may peak from 70,000 to 75,000 cases within three months, based on modelling forecasts.

This is why, she explained, we need to implement strict measures such as the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon, to “flatten the curve.”

Flattening the curve means the number of cases may be kept within what the already challenged health system can take care of.

On implementation gaps, government can claim they were in a hurry. While that is also true, there is no excuse for the delay now in distribution of help to displaced workers.

Also, why are hospitals still begging for masks and other medical supplies from private donors? Duterte should use his confidential funds to keep hospitals supplied with what they need.

Medical and other essential workers must be given transport to places of work.

Government officials shouldn’t break protocol and insist on getting themselves tested for the virus even in the absence of symptoms. We do not have enough test kits which is why there is a protocol that determines who gets tested first.

Those of us who are still healthy and can afford a month’s rest should just stay home… It is the most effective way of saving your life at this point.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail addrtess is [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @boochanco