A calibrated response to COVID-19

A regular reader of this column, who wishes to remain unnamed, sent in his views on the war of nations against COVID-19. In our last column, we wrote about the different responses of governments towards battling the contagious virus.

We talked about how China, Italy, and the Philippines chose lockdowns while South Korea and Iran has not as of this writing. Over 160 countries are now affected by the COVID-19 spread, and the World Health Organization (WHO) has already declared a state of pandemic.

Europe, through the European Union (EU), just announced a lockdown; the United Kingdom (UK), which recently successfully exited from the EU, has resisted. This is what our reader wants to discuss.

“A good discussion is needed, not just for the present coronavirus problem, but for the future problems of similar nature. Hopefully by then, we can see the effectiveness of the UK versus the rest of EU strategy.

“The UK focus is on the mortality of coronavirus complication, while the rest of EU is on the mortality from coronavirus. (There are) very important differences, as the mitigating measures could be very different and significant.

“The statistics are still evolving. The survival rates from coronavirus complication and coronavirus vary with age and those with existing health issues.

“Medical professionals, though, are exceptions because of fatigue, and if the media reporting about the country where it started is correct, they had health issues after being manhandled by the police for breaking the coronavirus news.

“The media just lumped death from coronavirus with death from corona virus complication.

Survival statistics

“As of March 3, the statistics for survival among those aged 80 and above is a low of 80 percent. The survival rates is up to 92 percent for those in their 70s, then to 98 percent for those in their 60s. The rise up to above 99.8 percent for those in the prime of their life. The statistics are contrary to those posted by CNN of 80 percent recovery.

“[edition.cnn.com/2020/03/12/health/coronavirus-survivor-elizabeth-schneider/index.html is] the link to the experience of one of the survivors of coronavirus infection.

“From what I got from my daughter in UK, the advice is for the 80 years old and above to self quarantine, and for the government to focus the health resources on the aged and the highly vulnerable who might get infected. Translated to Philippine demographics, this would be approximately 0.7 percent of the population.

Normal lifestyle for strong

“Get the strong members of society to live a normal lifestyle as possible. The psychological impact of the panic on the young could scar their mind for the rest of their life and result to a panicky society.

“[www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity] is the link to that discussion on the UK approach.

“[edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/uk/uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-intl-gbr/index.html] is a link to the UK government approach to coronavirus with the UK chief scientific advisor explanation on the need for “herd immunity” and a professor’s criticism of the government approach.

“Any similar analysis for the Philippines? Is the UK approach the reasonable approach? Or is it a foolhardy approach? Should we get a post panic analysis of the issue for the Philippines so we could have a more rationale approach the next time we face similar problem?

“Are we not going to have more deaths and trauma from the panic and … subsequent stresses? How about those that suffer from the lack of services, the lack of nutrition, and the economic trauma ranging from the oligarchs to the thousands of casual workers?”

Mitigation vs suppression

The first link above is a story of a 37-year-old woman in Seattle, the epicenter of the COVID-19 infections in the United States. She tested positive for the virus but treated herself by staying home, resting, and taking over-the-counter medications.

The other two links contain an explanation why the UK had delayed bans for mass gatherings and schools, and instead simply asked those with persistent cough or high temperature to self-isolate.

UK officials talk about “herd immunity” where majority of the people are allowed to contract a mild illness to build immunity, and eventually reduce transmission. The health care system will only focus on the elderly and those with underlying health issues, thus avoiding strain to the public health delivery system.

Another key difference in the UK approach is focusing on the reportage on statistics where deaths due to complications,s and recovery of those without complications are given more importance.

In essence, the UK approach supports that mitigation using optimal strategies – home isolation, home quarantine, social distancing – will reduce health care demand by two-thirds and deaths by half. The herd immunity effect is also expected to further bring down infections in the next cycles.

Most countries now use suppression to reverse the epidemic growth and reduce infection to low levels, but studies say the situation is maintained indefinitely. The risk of the infection spreading once again when containment measures are lifted is high because a vaccine has not been found.

WHO has opined that the issue is not about containment versus mitigation, but the need for nations to calibrate their responses using any available mix of strategies to control the spread of the virus and bring it down.

As of this writing, the UK has adopted stronger measures to confront the virus spread, including a ban on Britons for traveling overseas. It is still too early to tell whether the UK’s delaying strategy would work for this season’s cycle and the future.

Meanwhile, let’s all continue to do our share by making sure to keep safe.

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Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 25th Floor, 139 Corporate Center, Valero Street, Salcedo Village, 1227 Makati City. Or e-mail me at [email protected]. For a compilation of previous articles, visit www.BizlinksPhilippines.net.