Long-term planning against disaster risks needed

As floods recede in areas heavily affected by Typhoon Karding (Yagi), relief and rehabilitation continues.

It’s a good thing that many local governments have learned a number of lessons from previous debilitating disasters, which have been put to good use in recent days. Still, there is so much that needs to be put in place to further reduce damage to property and loss of lives.

The continuing strong rains, even as Karding had left the Philippine area of responsibility, have prevented fishermen from going out to sea and earning a living. Even more worrisome, affected farmers have lost crops painstakingly nurtured before the storm hit.

Affected small business owners and self-employed individuals, similarly, have to adjust to the dislocation, albeit temporary, and revenue losses that the floods and consequential cleanup activities have wrought.

It could have been worse, many say, recalling the crippling damage that the country’s previous big typhoons had inflicted on our countrymen. This should be comforting, but in the face of bigger threats from changing weather conditions and other related natural occurrences, there is oddly a growing feeling of despair.

Sinking cities

These days, there has been talk about sinking cities, mostly those in coastal areas, which are threatened not just by climate change, but also by the fast extraction of groundwater that causes the land to sink faster than the rise in sea water levels.

Jakarta is an oft-mentioned example. The northern part of this megacity, the capital of Indonesia, which is home to 10 million people, has already sunk by as much as 2.5 meters in the last decade, and continues to sink by about 25 centimeters a year in some parts.

Manila is one of 10 cities mentioned in studies as being threatened by rising sea levels and groundwater extraction. Others are Amsterdam in The Netherlands, Alexandria in Egypt, Miami, New York, Houston, and New Orleans in the US, Tokyo in Japan, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, Dhaka in Bangladesh, Tianjin and Shanghai in China, Bangkok in Thailand, Venice in Italy, Mexico City in Mexico, and of course, Jakarta.

It’s a phenomenon of the 21st century, one that scientists say will increasingly be felt by coastal cities as more frequent and intense inundation occurs due to rising sea levels and changes in rainfall patterns.

Less risky future

Should we then be resigned to living in a water world in the coming decades, losing many of our cities’ low-lying districts forever?

In 2015, the Philippines participated in crafting what is referred to as the Sendai Framework, a 15-year non-binding agreement that recognizes the leadership role of government in reducing disaster risks, thereby reducing the number of people affected, the direct economic loss, and the damage to critical infrastructure and basic services from disasters.

The Sendai agreement embodies hope for humankind threatened by climate change, population increase, rapid urbanization, and future environmental conditions. It believes that a riskier future may be transformed to become a less risky future.

For example, the answer to warmer climates is climate change mitigation. Hazardous areas should yield to better land-use planning and managed urban expansion. Instead of planning for the next disaster, governments must “plan for and act on risk scenarios over at least the next 50 years.”

Groundwater extraction

This would be a tall order for the Philippines, which until today is still guided by a limited time vision of risk reduction and management. In understanding why Manila is on the list of the world’s fastest sinking cities, we must accept that climate change is just one of the reasons.

Rapid urbanization has been a big cause for the faster extraction of the expanded metropolis’ groundwater supply. As a result, Manila is sinking by about four inches every year. This is exacerbated by rising sea levels of nearly 0.2 to 0.3 inches annually.

Many cities in other countries that have faced serious issues of over-extraction of groundwater have come up with countermeasures. Bangkok and Tokyo, for example, have restrictions on the amount of groundwater that can be extracted.

Manila has not recognized groundwater extraction as a risk, and in this regard, has been less receptive to looking at adopting measures that will stop building and home owners from installing water pumps that deplete the underground aquifers.

Simple government interventions adopted by countries like Tokyo and Bangkok have successfully stopped – even reversed – underground water depletion, thereby effectively and significantly reducing the damage caused by floods.

Local government interventions

Metro Manila’s floods, of course, are also due to many other causes like over-population, poor land-use planning, pollution that clogs sewers and rivers, and inadequate building codes. All these have solutions that rely on strong government interventions – from coming up with effective regulations to enforcement of laws.

Well and good that Marikina now has a working system that warns its residents to evacuate in the face of possible floods. The local government has even stepped up its capability to be able to move around during extreme floods, something that it was unable to do during Ondoy in 2009.

Recognizing how vulnerable the city is to floods, the local government must consider adopting progressively stiffer building regulations, as well as stricter management of its population growth.

Most residents may have chosen to stay regardless of future risks, but the local government should inhibit the development of new residential enclaves that would only unnecessarily expose more people to disasters.

It’s going to be a tough act, but one that is needed.

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