BOP swings to surplus in January

MANILA, Philippines - The country’s balance of payments position swung to a surplus in January from a deficit a year ago due to the steady inflow of hot money during the period, the Bangko Sentral ng PIlipinas reported yesterday.

Central bank data showed a BOP surplus of $136 million in January, a reversal of the $4.48-billion deficit recorded in the same month last year. The figure, however, is lower than the $864-million surplus recorded in December.

“Foreign portfolio investments alone ended January with a net surplus. I would also say that the current account must have continued to be resilient particularly exports, tourism, BPO (business process outsourcing) revenues, and remittances,” BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said.

The BOP is a summary of a country’s transactions with the rest of the world. Its components are trade, foreign direct and portfolio investments, and remittances from Filipinos overseas.

Latest available data showed foreign portfolio investments or hot money amounted to a net inflow of $591.62 million in January amid offerings and share sales by two listed holding firms and a universal bank.

According to Guinigundo, the January data “confirms our initial forecast of a $1-billion surplus for 2015.”

The BOP ended in a deficit last year after being in surplus for nine consecutive years. A BOP deficit of $2.879 billion was recorded in 2014, a turnaround from the $5.085-billion surplus in 2013.

The country’s BOP position last year has been largely affected by the normalization of policy in the US especially as this resulted in a reallocation of assets among markets and economies.

The US Federal Reserve in January last year started reducing its massive monthly purchases, ending the stimulus in October. Analysts now expect the US central bank to begin increasing rates by the middle of this year.