Only two certainties

With only seven games left in four playing days of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup single-round eliminations, only two things are certain – Smart Gilas will finish either No. 1 or No. 2, meaning it’s guaranteed an outright ticket to the semifinals, and San Miguel Beer is out of contention. Nothing else is clear or in other words, the ranking up to No. 9 is unsettled.

At the moment, here are the team standings with remaining assignments – No. 1 Smart Gilas (7-1, Meralco tomorrow), No. 2 Talk ‘N’ Text (6-1, B-Meg tonight, Barangay Ginebra on Sunday), No. 3 Alaska (5-2, Rain Or Shine tonight, Air 21 on Wednesday), No. 4 Barangay Ginebra (5-3, Talk ‘N’ Text on Sunday), No. 5 B-Meg (4-4, Talk ‘N’ Text tonight), No. 6 Air 21 (3-4, Powerade on Sunday, Alaska on Wednesday), No. 7 Rain Or Shine (3-4, Alaska tonight, San Miguel Beer on Wednesday), No. 8 Powerade (2-6, Air 21 on Sunday), No. 9 Meralco (2-6, Smart Gilas tomorrow) and No. 10 San Miguel Beer (1-7, Rain Or Shine on Wednesday).

Smart Gilas is safely in the semifinals even if Talk ‘N’ Text sweeps its last two games to move to 8-1, Alaska advances to 7-2 (beating the Elasto Painters and the Express) and the national team loses to Meralco tomorrow. In this situation, Talk ‘N’ Text clinches the No. 1 spot and Smart Gilas drops to No. 2. Smart Gilas and Alaska will finish with identical 7-2 records but the nationals will enter the semifinals by virtue of a +2 quotient.

There is a danger that Talk ‘N’ Text might not earn an automatic semifinals seat. The Texters will fall to No. 3 if they lose to B-Meg tonight and to Ginebra by at least four points on Sunday and Alaska finishes at 6-3, losing one and winning one to complete the Aces schedule. That will mean a three-way tie for second. If Ginebra beats the Texters by at least four, the Kings take the No. 2 spot by virtue of a +3 quotient, Talk ‘N’ Text slips to No. 3 with a +1 quotient and the Aces to No. 4 with a -4 quotient.

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Alaska might even zoom up to No. 2 if Talk ‘N’ Text loses its last two outings and the Aces beat Rain Or Shine tonight and Air 21 on Wednesday. This situation will put Alaska at 7-2 with Ginebra at No. 3 by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule and the Texters at No. 4. Ginebra and Talk ‘N’ Text end up with identical 6-3 records.

If Rain Or Shine beats Alaska tonight, Powerade and Meralco are struck out of the running. That’s because six teams will have won at least four games and neither the Tigers nor the Bolts are in a position to win more than three. The last four teams in the eliminations will miss the playoffs and take an early vacation.

But there’s a remote possibility of a four-way tie for sixth spot among Air 21, Rain Or Shine, Powerade and Meralco with identical 3-6 records. This will happen if Air 21 and Rain Or Shine lose their last two contests and Meralco upsets Smart Gilas. In this situation, the quotient system will break the logjam and the team with the highest plus factor escapes the axe. Meralco won’t make it in this deadlock with a +5 quotient. Rain Or Shine has a +17 quotient and will take the No. 6 seed because of Air 21’s loss to Powerade. Although in theory, Powerade and Meralco could tie for sixth place, there is no way for either team to advance because of their inferior quotients. In this sense, they are virtually disqualified before playing their final elimination games.

If Air 21 wins once more (over either Powerade or Alaska) and Rain Or Shine loses to the Aces tonight, the last four will be the Elasto Painters, Powerade, Meralco and San Miguel Beer.

No playoffs will be held in case of a tie with the quotient system the only lock breaker.

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If Talk ‘N’ Text loses to B-Meg tonight, the Texters and Ginebra square off on Sunday in a game that could decide the No. 2 slot. The crowd will be huge for this one as Paul Harris battles Nate Brumfield.

If the eliminations ended today (before tonight’s games), Smart Gilas and Talk ‘N’ Text will go straight to the semifinals and Rain Or Shine, Powerade, Meralco and San Miguel are eliminated. Alaska takes on Air 21 and Ginebra faces B-Meg in separate best-of-three quarterfinals. The Alaska-Air 21 winner then meets Talk ‘N’ Text and the Ginebra-B-Meg winner engages Smart Gilas in a pair of best-of-five semifinals. The semifinal survivors advance to dispute the title in a best-of-seven finals.

Four of the nine PBA teams in the conference have stuck with their original imports – Harris, Brumfield, Alaska’s L. D. Williams and Rain Or Shine’s Hassan Adams. Four other teams have made one switch each – Meralco from Tony Danridge to Champ Oguchi, Powerade from Russell Carter to Martin Zeno, Air 21 from Jeremy Robinson to Alpha Bangura and San Miguel from Ira Brown to David Young. B-Meg has switched from Rob Brown to Shamari Spears to Courtney Beasley.

Teams are allowed to change imports even during the finals so as the saying goes, they’re only as good as their last game.

Postscript. Class ‘61 of the Pedro Guevara Memorial High School (previously Laguna High School) will hold its Golden Jubilee reunion tomorrow at the Cultural Center of Laguna in Sta. Cruz. On Sunday, the celebrating class will enjoy an outing courtesy of classmates from abroad. The overall chairman of the Golden Jubilee program is Dr. Enrique Coralejo, former principal of Claret. For details, contact Benilda Gabinete Ladiana at Tel. (049) 808-4293, Elisa Ramos Trinidad at Tel. (049) 501-2850 or Armando Villaflor at Tel. (049) 501-0936. Class ‘61’s Ned Francisco of Northern Cement said over 300 are expected to join the festivities.