Mayweather duelsMcGregor – Madness

Okay, the Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Conor McGregor fight is on. The circus will be back on Aug. 26. Mayweather, after previously intimating that he was retired, now has the opportunity – after more than two decades of boxing – to surpass the unstained 49-0 record of heavyweight champion Rocky Marciano. McGregor, the former UFC featherweight and current UFC lightweight champion, did have some amateur boxing training in Ireland from the age of 12 until his mid-teens (All-Ireland youth champion). But for the last decade, he has been strictly a mixed martial arts fighter. Will the fight be worth watching? Local experts predominantly conclude it will be a walk for Mayweather, but a few hold out hope that it will, at least, be entertaining.

The only reason this fight can happen is that both men are roughly the same size, with McGregor only slightly taller and heavier. Other than that, it’s a bonus that both men are loud, aggressive, great self-promoters and are known for their wealth (the Irishman having been on the Forbes highest-paid athletes list twice). After a couple of years of dancing around the offers, McGregor aims to take home the highest paycheck of his career, the only thing that makes a difference to a new father.

McGregor is banking on his previous amateur boxing experience and the few months of training he’s probably already had since early this year. But that’s a slim lifeline. True, he may have the edge in power, but that’s for shorter fights. He has not gone up the traditional ladder of getting through four-, six- and eight-rounders. That’s where a lot of the learning takes place. In sparring, you aren’t hit with bad intentions. Your experience is still partly theoretical. And there are integral differences between striking in MMA and boxing. These are even more reasons why Floyd is – as always – supremely confident he can win.

In mixed martial arts, more of the weight is kept on the back leg. This is to allow the fighter to set up front kicks. However, this is the opposite of what boxers do, keeping most of their weight in front to give them more leverage and power when throwing punches. That fundamental difference alone spells trouble for McGregor. He will have to fight over a decade’s worth of training to sit on his back leg. If he does, his punches (assuming he can land) will have far less power than if he were a natural boxer. Also, MMA fighters need to be more squared up when fighting, or else one leg will absorb too much kicking from the opponent. Squaring up also makes it harder for your opponent to get painful inner-leg kicks through.

And even if McGregor does manage to raise his boxing, it’s the matter of the gloves. MMA gloves aren’t as protective as boxing gloves are, which increase in size as you go up in weight. As the bigger draw, Mayweather will decide the brand or type of gloves to be used during the fight. Punchers prefer gloves with horsehair or other material that breaks down during the fight, so the opponent feels more impact as the fight progresses. McGregor will need to throw more punches to do the same damage, which brings us to our next point.

Professional boxing matches were shortened to 12 rounds in the early 1980’s after Duk Kuo Kim fought Boom Boom Mancini for the WBA world lightweight belt and died four days later. The WBC then began the trend of shortening fights in general for the safety of the boxers. Amateur boxing matches are nowhere near that, and MMA fights are even shorter. When you factor in the kicking and the ground game, boxing (striking is only a fraction of even that. How will McGregor compensate for not having thrown punches full-time professionally in the last 10 years? Like Ali did to Foreman, all Mayweather has to do is let Conor punch himself out, and pounce on him in the middle rounds. On the flip side, McGregor also won’t be used to being punched that much, either.

There is also little bobbing and weaving in MMA. Floyd is undefeated. Many people take that for granted. It means that he has figured out every which way to win. That also includes bloating himself past the weight limit (against Juan Manuel Marquez), hitting when the referee isn’t looking (versus Victor Ortiz), stepping on his opponent’s lead foot, and constantly clinching.

Will people pay to watch it? Of course they will, because all the requisite pageantry, trash-talking and hype will ensue before then. As I said, the circus will be back, and the sports media are obligated to report it. People will pay money to see the spectacle for reasons other than whether or not there may be any quality involved. There will be betting, bragging, and curiosity as to who can shut the other guy up. It will be a gamble, but if you don’t pay, you don’t get to satiate your curiosity. It’s a potential train wreck with a ticket price.