4 games are left in the PBA

PBA Commissioner’s Cup schedule and depending on the results of the remaining contests, there could be a quadruple tie for first and a quadruple tie for seventh. Under tournament rules, all ties will be broken by the quotient system except in a logjam for the eighth spot in which case, it will be decided by the quotient system and/or a one-game playoff.

In tomorrow’s twinbill at the Cuneta Astrodome, it will be Blackwater against San Miguel Beer and Alaska against Star. On Friday, the final elimination round doubleheader at the Smart Araneta Coliseum will pit San Miguel against GlobalPort and Barangay Ginebra against Mahindra.

Here’s how the teams stand so far: Star 8-2, Ginebra 8-2, TNT 8-3, San Miguel 7-2, Meralco 7-4, Rain Or Shine 5-6, Alaska 4-6, GlobalPort 4-6, Phoenix 4-7, Mahindra 3-7, Blackwater 2-8 and NLEX 2-9. Only three teams are out of contention – Mahindra, Blackwater and NLEX. Mahindra could go up to 4-7 with a win over Ginebra and tie Phoenix, Alaska and GlobalPort for seventh place if the Aces and the Batang Pier lose their last outings. But Mahindra would be booted out anyway due to the quotient system because of its losses to Alaska by six and to GlobalPort by 19, discounting the Floodbuster’s one-point win over Phoenix.

Eight teams will make it to the quarterfinals, leaving the last four placers out in the cold. That’s why the league is allowing a one-game playoff to break a possible logjam for eighth because it could mean either moving in or moving out. If there is a four-way tie for seventh, the team with the best quotient takes No. 7 and the team with the lowest quotient drops to No. 10, leaving the other two teams to dispute No. 8 in a one-game playoff.

* * *

If there is a three-way tie for seventh, the team with the best quotient takes No. 7 and the other two teams slug it out for No. 8 in a one-game playoff. So breaking a logjam for No. 8 could be through a combination of the quotient system and a one-game playoff.

A four-way tie for seventh is possible if Mahindra beats Ginebra and Alaska loses to Star and GlobalPort is beaten by San Miguel. That would leave four teams, including Phoenix, tied for seventh at 4-7.  In this case, Alaska clinches No. 7 with a +26 factor and Mahindra tumbles out with -24. Phoenix (+19) and GlobalPort (-21) face off for No. 8.

A three-way tie for seventh is possible if Alaska, Mahindra and GlobalPort lose their last assignments. That would strike out Mahindra at 3-8 if it loses to Ginebra and leave Alaska, GlobalPort and Phoenix tied at 4-7. In this case, Phoenix and Alaska are tied with identical +20 factors but the Fuel Masters take No. 7 by virtue of their 94-86 win over the Aces in the elims. Alaska then takes on GlobalPort (-40) for No. 8.

If Alaska wins and GlobalPort loses, the Aces take No. 6 and Rain Or Shine No. 7 while the Batang Pier and Phoenix battle in a playoff for No. 8. That’s assuming Mahindra loses to Ginebra.  If Alaska and GlobalPort win their last games, they’re both safely in the quarterfinals with 5-6 records, leaving out Phoenix.

* * *

At the top, the race for two twice-to-beat advantage tickets is extremely tight. There will be a three-way tie for first if Star, Ginebra and San Miguel win their last games. In this case, only the quotient system will be applied in breaking the deadlock. Ginebra will take pole position with a +23 factor and San Miguel, No. 2 with -2. Star will fall to No. 3 with -21.

A four-way tie for first is also possible.  That happens if Star and Ginebra lose their last games and San Miguel drops one of its last two assignments. That would leave Star, Ginebra, TNT and San Miguel tied with identical 8-3 records. In the quotient system, Ginebra takes No. 1 with a +41 factor and TNT, No. 4 with -19. Star and San Miguel are even with -11 but the Beermen will clinch the second twice-to-beat advantage by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule. San Miguel downed the Hotshots, 103-97, in the elims.

The stats show that a win by Ginebra over Mahindra will put the Barangay at No. 1 outright, no matter the results of the other teams in contention. The outcomes of the last four games in the calendar have a bearing on which teams will claim the two twice-to-beat tickets and which team will join Mahindra, Blackwater and NLEX by the wayside. In other words, the action will be good to the last drop.