EDITORIAL – Duterte just told China his plans

The good news is that President Duterte has finally decided to send troops to occupy at least nine unoccupied islands in the Spratlys that are said to be under Philippine control. The bad news is that he had to make a public announcement regarding his plan, thereby squandering the element of surprise which was the Philippines only real ace up its sleeve.

The president is correct in saying that the situation in the South China Sea has been reduced to a grabbing match, with China doing most of the grabbing. This is the result of an absence of any code of conduct governing the actions in the area of several claimants that include, aside from the Philippines and China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei.

China has taken possession of many of the islands, building on them and converting them into what clearly looks like military facilities. Duterte, who has hedged on invoking a favorable ruling from an international arbitral tribunal until what he calls the proper time, surprised everybody when he announced the next steps he is going to make in the disputed areas.

He shouldn't have done so. The Philippines does not have the muscle that China has, and which allowed it to impose its will in the area. The Philippines needs the element of surprise to achieve what little it can do. Without surprise, and most especially if we telegraph our punches, chances are China will be ready for us when we round the next corner.

The only reason China has not taken over the islands Duterte intends to occupy is because it already has too much of a good thing. It already has grabbed more than it can reasonably use. Besides, finding use for the islands it has already grabbed is just a bonus, the icing on the cake. The real victory for China was doing what it did and finding out that America did not have the balls to stop it.

Of course America spat and cursed and belatedly flexed its muscles. But in the end, it could not undo what China had done. To China, that was enough. But it is not prepared at this time to push the envelope, hence many islands in the area remain unoccupied. But they remain so only because China decided leaving them alone for now was the prudent thing to do. Duterte could have used that to spring his surprise. Unfortunately, he just kicked at the tripwire.