Ginebra on the verge

Barangay Ginebra hasn’t won a PBA championship since the 2007-08 Fiesta Conference or a drought of 21 straight conferences over the last eight years. It hasn’t qualified for the finals since the 2013 Commissioner’s Cup where Ginebra was blanked by Alaska in a forgettable appearance.

When Ginebra won its last title, the team’s roster listed Mark Caguioa, JayJay Helterbrand, Eric Menk, Junthy Valenzuela, Paul Artadi, Alex Crisano, Chris Pacana, Billy Mamaril, Sunday Salvacion, Ronald Tubid, Rafi Reavis and import Chris Alexander. The Ginebra coach was Jong Uichico, now calling the shots for TNT KaTropa. Today, only Caguioa and Helterband – the fabled Fast and the Furious – are still with the Barangay. Four players from that squad are no longer active and one, Tubid, is playing for San Miguel Beer against Ginebra in the raging Governors Cup best-of-five semifinal series which the Barangay leads, 2-1.

  Ginebra is on the verge of making it back to the finals. The Barangay is a win away from eliminating San Miguel and holds a virtual twice-to-beat advantage moving into Game 4 at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight. For San Miguel to advance to the finals for the chance to retain the crown, the Beermen must beat Ginebra twice in a row. For Ginebra to advance, the Barangay has to win only once more over San Miguel.

It’ll be a sentimental return to the finals for Caguioa and Helterbrand if Ginebra manages to advance. They’re both in the twilight of spectacular careers. Caguioa turns 37 on Nov. 19 and Helterbrand 40 on Oct. 14. Others in coach Tim Cone’s roster who are at least 30 are Joe DeVance, 34, L A. Tenorio, 32, Sol Mercado, 32 and Jervy Cruz, 30. Cone has slowly brought in young blood to rebuild for the future with rookies Scottie Thompson, 23, and Aljon Mariano, 24. The lineup also includes Japeth Aguilar, 29, Greg Slaughter, 28, Dave Marcelo, 27, Chris Ellis, 27, Franklin Bonifacio, 26, Nico Salva, 26 and Lee Villamor, 26

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But San Miguel isn’t expected to just roll over and die. The Beermen are out to retain the title they won via a sweep over Alaska last season. Coach Leo Austria has 11 players from that championship cast back for another crack. The team is experienced and extremely talented. But it may be a little top-heavy as in the semifinal series against Ginebra, Austria has opted to rotate short. In the two games that San Miguel lost, Austria played only eight players. Cone sent in 10 in Ginebra’s 115-108 win in Game 1 and 11 in the Barangay’s 97-96 squeaker in Game 3.

The barometers in the series are clear. The team with the higher field goal percentage, more field goal attempts and more points in the paint has won every game. Curiously, the team with more three-point conversions has lost every game. So the premium has to be shot selection or going for the high percentage attempts.

In Game 1, Ginebra shot 51 percent, took 94 attempts and scored 66 points in the paint compared to San Miguel’s 46 percent, 16 turnovers, 92 attempts and 42 points in the paint. In Game 3, the pattern was the same – Ginebra shot 41 percent, took 92 attempts and hit 42 points in the paint compared to San Miguel’s 39 percent, 88 attempts and 24 points in the paint.

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When San Miguel won, 95-92, in Game 2, the Beermen shot 45 percent, took 97 attempts and scored 48 points in the paint compared to Ginebra’s 44 percent, 85 attempts and 36 points in the paint.

Cone has gone to a deeper rotation than Austria and that’s a key factor in a war of attrition. In Game 1, Ginebra had eight players logging at least 15 minutes with only one playing at least 37 minutes and none at least 40 while San Miguel had only five players logging at least 15 minutes with all five playing at least 37 and three at least 40. So the numbers indicate Ginebra had fresher legs throughout the contest because of a deeper rotation.

In Game 2, Austria extended his rotation to 10 players with seven logging at least 15 minutes and the trick worked as the Beermen outlasted Ginebra. But in Game 3, San Miguel was back to an eight-man rotation while Ginebra deployed 11 players to pull out the cliffhanger win. The value of a deeper rotation was evident in Game 3 as Ginebra won despite Mercado going 0-of-8 from the field with Tenorio and Thompson more than making up with a combined 32 points, 21 rebounds and 19 assists.

The duel between imports has been a treat for fans because San Miguel’s Elijah Millsap and Ginebra’s Justin Brownlee are a cut above the rest in terms of playing ability, versatility and work ethic. Millsap, 29, played two seasons with the Utah Jazz. In 2013, he led Petron, now San Miguel Beer, to the Governors Cup finals and came up short as San Mig Coffee – with Cone as coach – won the title in seven games. Brownlee, 28, is in his first tour of duty in the PBA and played at St. John’s University, the same New York school that produced Metta World Peace, Mark Jackson and Chris Mullin. One of them should be picked Best Import of the conference.