Coaches rate playoff chances

Four teams swing into action at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight to settle the seedings in the PBA Governors Cup quarterfinal playoffs which start Friday. Rain Or Shine battles Phoenix to decide the No. 8 seed with the loser joining GlobalPort, Star and Blackwater out of contention. The do-or-die duel has the makings of a classic confrontation between gladiators in a Roman arena where one survives and other doesn’t. In the other matchup, Meralco and Mahindra dispute the No. 4 slot that comes with a twice-to-beat advantage. The loser drops to No. 5 and in the quarterfinals, they’ll meet again so tonight’s encounter is a virtual Game 1 of a best-of-three series.

Mahindra has lost its last three outings, including an 86-83 decision to Meralco to close out the eliminations last Sept. 11. The Bolts have won three of their last five assignments and are looking sharp with veteran Jimmy Alapag leading the charge. The Enforcers got off to a hot 4-0 start but when KG Canaleta went down with appendicitis, the roof caved in and Mahindra dropped three in a row.

The good news from the Enforcers camp is Canaleta will be suited up against Meralco. He was out of commission when Meralco beat Mahindra in their last game of the eliminations. Mahindra head of basketball operations Bobby Rosales said Canaleta was back in the gym last week.

“Getting KG back in our lineup just at this opportune time has boosted the morale and confidence of our team now that we’re finally healthy again,” said Mahindra coach Chris Gavina. “These past three losses prepared us for this playoff tremendously. If there’s any lesson we’ve learned from the three losses, it’s been that as long as we play our brand of basketball on a consistent basis, we can compete with the top tier teams of the PBA.”

Gavina said he’s looking forward to the clash of imports between Mahindra’s James White and Meralco’s Allen Durham. “James has diligently prepared himself physically and has mentally garnered a full steam of confidence as we make this playoff push,” he said. “We’ll need to neutralize Durham’s strong low post play in order to withstand Meralco.”

Bolts coach Norman Black said he’s expecting a tough grind against Mahindra. “They’ve played well this conference and they’re well-coached,” he said. “White poses a big problem because he is long, energetic and athletic. When he’s making his outside shots, he’s very difficult to defend.”

Black said another test is how to stop Mahindra point guard L. A. Revilla whose matchup with veteran Jimmy Alapag is an intriguing mano-a-mano collision. “A concern will be trying to control the penetrations of Revilla while also challenging the outside shooting of KG and (Aldrech) Ramos,” said Black. “We’ve been able to score the ball well this conference but in this series coming up, a solid defense will be the key.”

It’s defense that’s been fueling Meralco’s power surge. In its last three wins, Meralco gave up only 89.3 points a game while in its last three losses, the average was up to 113.3. The differential of 24 points indicates what Meralco is doing right and what it’s doing wrong. Conversely, what drives Mahindra is its offense. In the Enforcers’ six wins, they scored 103 points a game but in their five losses, the average fell to 86.4. With Canaleta in harness, Gavina has his top local gunner back to rely on. The winner of the Mahindra-Meralco contest tonight will take a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals against the loser.

Rain Or Shine coach Yeng Guiao said the Elasto Painters are sticking with third import pick Josh Dollard after releasing Dior Lowhorn and Jason Forte. It’s unusual for Rain Or Shine to be fighting for survival in any conference but import problems were the cause for this predicament. Dollard delivered 27 points and 14 rebounds in the Painters’ 108-97 win over Star last Friday so that convinced Guiao to keep him on board. But beyond Dollard, Guiao will need more consistency from his local crew.

In the eliminations, Rain Or Shine beat Phoenix, 106-89, with Lowhorn in the lineup. The Petroleum Fuel Masters had Marcus Simmons as import in the game and they’ve since brought in the explosive Eugene Phelps. So their encounter tonight will be almost a brand new story with different imports.

“Dollard is definitely playing,” said Guiao. “We feel really good about the game against Phoenix because Dollard is practicing and playing better. He also knows the system and his teammates a lot better than when he first played for us. Phoenix has probably the most prolific import so it’s important we don’t fall behind in the import comparison. Even if we beat them in the eliminations, they’re a totally different team with Phelps.” Guiao said it’s not really far-fetched to visualize Rain Or Shine going all the way to the Final Four.

Dollard played for Barako Bull in the 2014 Commissioner’s Cup, averaging 32.6 points in nine games. He’s a veteran of foreign leagues with stops in Japan, South Korea, Finland, Switzerland, Canada, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Turkey, Greece and Colombia. Fitting in shouldn’t be a problem for Dollard because of his experience.