Time for revenge

It’s getting to be a habit for San Miguel Beer and Alaska to face off in the PBA Finals of any conference. They dueled in two of the three conferences last season with the Beermen taking out the Aces, 4-3, in the Philippine Cup and 4-0 in the Governors Cup. Today, the league’s two winningest franchises reprise their storied rivalry in Game 1 of the best-of-seven Philippine Cup Finals at the Smart Araneta Coliseum.

The last time Alaska beat San Miguel in the Finals was when Tim Cone was still at the helm with the Aces beating the Beermen, 4-2, for the Fiesta Conference crown in 2009-10. Before that, Cone was responsible for capturing three of four Finals confrontations with San Miguel, claiming the 1995 Governors Cup, 1998 Commissioner’s Cup and 1998 All-Filipino Cup titles. Coach Joseph Uichico, now calling the shots for Talk ‘N’ Text, sneaked in a trophy for San Miguel over Alaska in the 1999 Governors Cup.

In all, San Miguel and Alaska have battled in seven Finals series with the Aces winning four.  Coach Leo Austria is credited with two of San Miguel’s three victories while Cone brought in Alaska’s four. Coach Alex Compton has felt the sting of losing to San Miguel twice in the Finals – that happened last season. Compton won’t want to taste the pain of a third setback. He’s out for revenge and from all indications, Alaska has the edge to get it done.

If the series goes the distance, Game 7 will be held on Feb. 3, Wednesday, at the Mall of Asia Arena. A week later, on Feb. 10, the Commissioner’s Cup will begin with 11 teams allowed to recruit an import standing a maximum of 6-9 and Mahindra the exception without a limit. Game 2 is scheduled on Tuesday at the Big Dome, Game 3 on Friday, Jan. 22 at Lucena City and Game 4 on Sunday, Jan. 24, at the PhilSports Arena. If necessary, Game 5 will be held on Wednesday, Jan. 27, at the Smart Araneta Coliseum and Game 6 on Friday, Jan. 29, also at the Big Dome.

In their elimination encounter, Alaska snapped San Miguel’s 7-game winning streak with a 103-97 decision last Dec. 16 despite JuneMar Fajardo’s 43-point eruption. Both teams were excused from playing in the quarterfinals and booked automatic tickets to the semifinals. Alaska suffered a hiccup in Game 1 of the semifinals against Globalport, 107-93, but regrouped to win the next four meetings, holding the Batang Pier to a 79.5 clip the rest of the way. The Aces have now won six of their last seven outings, going back to the eliminations. They’ve lost only thrice so far in the conference. In those three losses, Alaska gave up an average of 103.7 points. Overall, Alaska is No. 2 in defense, surrendering only 91.8 an outing.

San Miguel was down, 1-2, in the semifinals against Rain Or Shine but bounced back to win three in a row to oust the Elasto Painters, 4-2. The Beermen beat Rain Or Shine the same way Alaska repulsed Globalport – with defense. In San Miguel’s two semifinal losses to the Painters, the Beermen gave up an average of 108 points. In San Miguel’s four wins, the Painters were held to 93.3 a game. San Miguel was at its stingiest in sweeping the last three contests as Rain Or Shine averaged only 89.3 points. What made San Miguel’s advance easier was the absence of injured Raymond Almazan starting Game 3 and Paul Lee’s inability to play in the clincher due to a swollen knee. Jericho Cruz, whom coach Yeng Guiao called his best transition finisher, sat out Game 4 which San Miguel won.

Clearly, injuries will play a big role in determining which team finishes on top at the end of the Finals. Fajardo, for instance, hurt his left knee in the third quarter of San Miguel’s clincher over Rain Or Shine last Friday and it’s not certain if he’ll suit up for Game 1 of the Finals today. Without Fajardo, the Beermen will be hard pressed to survive Alaska. That will put a lot of pressure on Yancy de Ocampo to step up.  But it’s not as if De Ocampo can’t. Against NLEX in the eliminations, De Ocampo subbed for Fajardo and delivered 17 points with 12 boards as San Miguel won, 88-80, in overtime. However, it’s one thing to play big in a game and another to play big in a series.

Alaska’s advantage over San Miguel is in the depth department. Compton’s philosophy of “We Not Me” is reflected in how he deploys his players on the floor. It’s an equal opportunity system where the Aces’ top three scorers have never started a game the entire conference – Vic Manuel (14.6), Calvin Abueva (13.3) and Chris Banchero (10.1). Six Aces are averaging at least 20 minutes but none over 30. Jvee Casio is logging the most playing time with 25.4 minutes. Casio is one of seven Aces hitting at least nine points an outing. Sonny Thoss (9.9), Cyrus Baguio (9.2) and R. J. Jazul (9.2) are also in the circle. Dondon Hontiveros (7.1) and Eric Menk (5.6) are other key contributors.

The stats show why Alaska is favored in the Finals. The Aces are No. 1 in field goal percentage (44.9), three-point accuracy (36.5), assists (20.3), turnover points (16.7) and in opponents turnovers (19.5). They’re also No. 1 in offense with an average of 101 and No. 2 in field goal percentage allowed (39.3), rebounding (52.2), defense (91.8 points allowed) and fastbreak points (13.4). Because Compton gives as much importance to his second and third units as his first, he’s able to maintain a high level of intensity and energy on the floor at any given moment. It’s the reason why Alaska is so explosive on both ends.

In contrast, San Miguel isn’t as multi-dimensional but Austria isn’t unfazed. Why provide equal opportunity when you’ve got the league’s No. 1 player, the reigning back-to-back MVP? Instead of “We Not Me,” Austria’s battlecry is “Me Plus We.” Fajardo is San Miguel’s main man and everyone else is a role player who supports the Kraken. The question mark is whether Fajardo is able to play 100 percent or not.

In the semifinal clincher against Rain Or Shine, San Miguel came from 15 points down to win. The Painters had the edge in turnover points, 16-14, bench points, 44-27, fastbreak points, 21-11 and second chance points, 21-17 but still lost because San Miguel was sturdy at crunchtime and played tougher defense. Rain Or Shine had 14 more field goal attempts but shot only 34 percent from the floor to San Miguel’s 43. Defense made the difference.

Four Beermen are averaging in double figure points – Fajardo (26), Arwind Santos (15.1), Alex Cabagnot (13.6) and Marcio Lassiter (12.1). But they’re the only players averaging at least nine points compared to seven for Alaska. Six Beermen are logging at least 20 minutes but three are playing 30 or more. San Miguel’s rotation isn’t as deep as Alaska’s and in an extended dogfight, that could work against the Beermen. Alaska will try to run San Miguel to the ground. In a short series, San Miguel has the advantage but Fajardo must be solid. In a long series, Alaska has the edge even with Fajardo in harness.

San Miguel is deadliest when it’s dictating tempo behind a slow-down pace. The Beermen are averaging only 10.7 fastbreak points, No. 8 in the league, as they like to keep it low-scoring. Their size is a major asset as San Miguel is No. 1 in second chance points at 14.7 and No. 3 in rebounding at 51.3. San Miguel is No. 1 in rebounds allowed at 46 and No. 3 in points allowed at 92.4.

To match up against Alaska, Austria might drop Santos from four to three so he locks horns with Abueva, his Kabalen, and bring up Gabby Espinas to play four against Manuel or Thoss. Fajardo should be able to keep Menk or Thoss busy at the slot. Thoss is interchangeable at four or five. If Santos is at three, Lassiter will be a mismatch nightmare for Alaska at two. Cabagnot, Chris Ross and Ronald Tubid could take turns at the point. Chris Lutz, who’s hitting a lofty 56.3 percent from the floor, is an option at one or two. For San Miguel, the key is to control the boards so the Beermen are able to dictate the pace.

The Finals could go down to the wire because both teams are ready to win. Alaska has the edge in terms of statistics but don’t count out San Miguel with its championship experience. The Aces were deprived twice by San Miguel in the Finals last season. They’re hungry for redemption. San Miguel was a jewel shy of a Grand Slam last season and Austria would like another try for a sweep – it all starts with winning the Philippine Cup.