Will Manny fight versus Floyd ever happen?

MANILA, Philippines - There are two fights left in WBC/WBA welterweight champion Floyd Mayweather’s $250 million contract with cable TV network Showtime and the man who calls himself the Greatest Of All Time plans to end his career in September next year.

Mayweather, 37, has a 47-0 record, with 26 KOs, and is determined to remain unbeaten when he retires. He has won seven of his last eight outings by decision with the knockout over Victor Ortiz on a sucker punch the only exception since 2007. Mayweather’s last three fights against Robert Guerrero and Marcos Maidana twice failed to register at least one million pay-per-view buys, indicating a slipping popularity probably because he has become cautious and boring in the ring in the twilight of his career.

Discussions are ongoing to arrange a Mayweather fight against WBO welterweight titlist Manny Pacquiao, who is tied up with Showtime’s TV rival HBO, in a championship unification showdown.  Top Rank chairman Bob Arum has mentioned that Showtime and HBO are in talks but couldn’t confirm whether an agreement is likely or not.

Pacquiao, 35, has racked up six pay-per-view fights with at least 1 million hits like Mayweather. And just like the Money Man, he didn’t register a seven-figure pay-per-view blockbuster in his last three fights against Brandon Rios, Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri. Mayweather, however, is the only fighter ever to rack up two pay-per-view bouts with over two million subscriptions. In 2007, he battled Oscar de la Hoya in a bout that drew $136 million in pay-per-view income with 2.48 million hits. Last year, Mayweather defeated Saul Alvarez in a fight that brought in $150 million in pay-per-view revenues with 2.2 million hits.

A source said a trilogy is in the works starting in May next year with a rematch in September. The third fight will be sometime in 2016 but Pacquiao is expected to be busy campaigning for the Senate in the elections in May that year. The source said the first bout will be in Las Vegas with both fighters guaranteed at least $50 million each. The pay-per-view upside split will be 60 percent for Mayweather and 40 percent for Pacquiao. If the fight ever happens, it could gross up to $175 million assuming 2.5 million hits at $70 a pop. Excluding expenses, what will be left to split should be enough for both fighters to take home at least $100 million apiece.

Six-time Trainer of the Year awardee Freddie Roach said recently the war will be for at least two battles. “Three or four years ago when they first talked about the fight, I thought it would be, just that, a fight, very competitive,” said Roach. “Then, two years ago, I thought if it happened, it would be still okay. Now, I think Manny knocks out Mayweather. I don’t see Mayweather the same as he was three or four years ago. He’s not as quick. Manny is still as quick and strong as before.”

WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto, who has lost to both Mayweather and Pacquiao, made a bold prediction on who will win. “In 2007-08, I wanted to fight Mayweather but he kept coming up with excuses,” said Cotto, quoted by Scoop Malinowski in Boxing News. “He treated me the same way he has treated Pacquiao. It’s probably true that he only fought me in 2012 because he thought I was finished at the top level. Manny would beat him convincingly. He wouldn’t be able to handle Manny’s speed. There’s no way Floyd could avoid his left or predict things with him. He would lose and he knows that.”

Ricky Hatton, who has also lost to both fighters, said for anyone to have a chance of beating Mayweather, he needs fast feet and a high workrate. “You can’t be careless as he’ll punish you,” he said. “Straight punches are important against him. If you swing away with hooks, he can shoulder roll and pull away. It’s easier to get straight shots through.”

Referee Genaro Rodriguez said he doesn’t think the match will ever happen. But if it does, the bout will be great for boxing. He said it would be a 50-50 fight. Ring announcer Michael Buffer said if it pulls through, the fight could be in the Middle East. A Dubai financier has reportedly put up $200 million to lure the fighters to the United Arab Emirates. Buffer said there is also talk of Pacquiao fighting in the Philippines before hanging up his gloves.

Uganda’s Justin Juuko, who was stopped by Mayweather in 1999, said picking a winner is a tough call. “The winner would be the fighter who sticks with the gameplan,” he said. “By the seventh or eighth round, when things start changing, you start to fight the guy and forget the gameplan. To me, the fight is a very tough call. I know both guys. Floyd is very technical. You can’t match him. Pacquiao is very tough, strong and unpredictable. It’d be a good fight. Floyd doesn’t throw as many punches as Pacquiao but they land. Pacquiao’s power is deceiving. He overwhelms you with punches. He puts so much pressure on you. They have to make this fight before it’s too late.”

To seal the deal, the consensus is to give Mayweather what he wants if only to call his bluff. Negotiators should allow him to choose the venue, date and revenue split. “Mayweather needs to feel like he’s in control, that it’s his decision,” said writer Matt Christie. “Let his promotional team have top billing and present him with a sum of cash bigger than anything he has earned before.”

Pacquiao has repeatedly called out Mayweather to fight and even appears in a Foot Locker commercial whooping it up in a fantasy setting where he is told the megabout is on. His dominant performance in recently defeating Chris Algieri in Macau may or may not enhance the possibility of staging the fight. Mayweather may come to terms because he is assured of a competitive and highly marketable fight or may not agree because Pacquiao could spoil his perfect record.