History picks Warriors

There have been only 9 NBA playoff best-of-7 series in history where a team came back from a 1-3 deficit to win and 7 clinched at home. In the 7 games that were decided at home, the average winning margin was 17. In the 2 games that were decided on the road, the average winning margin was 2.5. Of the 9 survivors, 5 went on to play in the Finals and 3 wound up with the title.

Golden State hopes to become the 10th team to come back from 1-3 to win a playoff series when the Warriors battle Oklahoma City in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals at the Oracle Arena in Oakland this morning (Manila time). The survivor advances to the Last Dance against Cleveland. If the Dubs make it all the way back to the throne, they’ll join the Boston Celtics of 1968 and 1981 and the Houston Rockets of 1995 as the only teams ever to survive a 1-3 series and eventually capture the crown.

For the record, the 9 teams that won a playoff series (never in the Finals) from 1-3 were the Boston Celtics over Philadelphia in 1968 (100-96 in Game 7 on the road), the Los Angeles Lakers over Phoenix in 1970 (129-94 in Game 7 at home), Washington over San Antonio in 1979 (107-105 in Game 7 at home), Boston over Philadelphia in 1981 (91-90 in Game 7 at home), Houston over Philadelphia in 1995 (115-114 in Game 7 on the road), Miami over New York in 1997 (101-90 in Game 7 at home), Detroit over Orlando in 203 (118-93 in Game 7 at home), Phoenix over the Lakers in 2006 (121-90 in Game 7 at home) and Houston over the Los Angeles Clippers in 2015 (113-100 in Game 7 at home).

The stats show that the close-out is more easily done at home with a much bigger winning margin than if clinched on the road. Clearly, the homecourt advantage is a huge factor with momentum on the side of the team that’s coming off two wins in a row.

In the ongoing playoffs so far, Golden State has posted an 11-5 record, 8-1 at home and 3-5 on the road while the Thunder is 11-6, 6-3 at home and 5-3 on the road. OKC’s away record is a scare for the Warriors. Coach Billy Donovan’s squad is almost as equally defiant at home as on the road. OKC beat Dallas twice on the road in the first round, defeated San Antonio twice on the road in the second round and beat Golden State in Game 1 at the Oracle Arena. For the Thunder to advance to the Last Dance, Donovan’s troops must win another one on the road over the Warriors.

Golden State was nearly untouchable at home during the regular season, registering a 39-2 mark at the Oracle Arena. The two losses were to Boston and Minnesota and they came late in the season. In the playoffs, the Dubs have lost only once at home, a 108-102 decision to OKC in their series opener. But while the Warriors are tough to beat at home, the team with the best chance of repulsing the Dubs at the Oracle Arena is OKC because of the Thunder’s remarkable performance on the road.

The Warriors are averaging 114 points in 8 playoff home wins and 109 in 3 road victories in the playoffs. In those 8 home wins, the Dubs’ average winning margin was 16. The rim appears to be a lot wider for the Warriors at home than anywhere else. They closed out Houston at home with a 33-point disposal, 114-81, in Game 5 of the first round and also shut the door on Portland at home with a 4-point win, 125-121, in Game 5 of the second round. In Golden State’s 5 playoff losses, the Warriors averaged 101 points and 2 were with the Dubs scoring less than 100. Coach Steve Kerr’s chances over OKC hinge on turning Game 7 into a high-scoring, three-point shootout. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are on target, the Warriors will be hard to beat at home.

In Game 6 at Oklahoma last Sunday morning (Manila time), the Warriors survived a second straight do-or-die battle to win, 108-101, with Golden State knocking down 21 triples, 11 from Thompson, to the Thunder’s 3. It wasn’t an easy victory as the Warriors leaned on a 16-4 surge to close out the contest. While Thompson and Curry did the damage on the offensive end, Andre Igoudala went beyond the call of duty to play lock-down defense alternately on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. With the game slipping away, OKC panicked as Durant and Westbrook tried to bail out the Thunder by themselves, forgetting that execution is easier when the five on the floor are involved not just one or two stars.

Igoudala’s role isn’t as magnified in media as Curry’s or Thompson’s but there’s a reason why he was the Finals MVP last season. “He’s one of our two captains,” said Kerr. “He’s our most experienced player and he’s one of the smartest guys I’ve ever been around. The guy is brilliant at both ends. He sees the game … he’s got a great basketball mind. Andre is one of the smartest defenders I’ve ever seen. I mean, he understands angles, he understands where everybody is on the floor.”

But while defense is important in basketball, it’s offense that puts the ball in the basket and scores the points. That’s where the Splash Brothers are at their most dangerous best. Curry and Thompson combined for 72 points, including 17-of-32 triples, in Game 6 against OKC. The Thunder committed six turnovers in the last 2:55 with Igoulada accounting for two steals and Golden State capped it with a 9-0 ending.

For Golden State, what’s on the line isn’t just the opportunity to retain the title. It’s also the chance to salvage the glory of a regular season where the Dubs registered an NBA best record of 73-9. If the Warriors don’t even make it out of the Western Conference Finals, their 73-win record will only be a footnote to a painfully abbreviated postseason. Note that the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ previous record of 72 wins was made more meaningful when they won the title. The main thing is the ultimate prize, not the record in the regular season.

If OKC wins Game 7, there will be comments that Golden State is just a one-hit wonder, that small ball isn’t as potent as big ball playing small ball. To douse all speculation, Kerr’s got to deliver in Game 7. History is on the Warriors’ side. OKC is under pressure to win on the road. The Oracle Arena will be rocking like it’s never rocked before. This will be a game to justify Curry as the NBA’s back-to-back MVP.