Stats show six legit title bets

Only two games are left in the PBA Philippine Cup eliminations and it’s still not certain if Rain Or Shine or Blackwater will join the cast of eight quarterfinalists. The two remaining contests are Star against Mahindra and Alaska against Rain Or Shine at the Cuneta Astrodome tomorrow.

The magic number of wins to clinch a playoff slot is six and seven teams have made it. Defending champion San Miguel Beer is way ahead in the race with a 10-1 record, its only loss a 92-85 setback to Phoenix. The Beermen have won nine in a row and coach Leo Austria said the team is chasing history because retaining the crown will complete a Grand Slam and seal permanent possession of the Philippine Cup trophy. 

Alaska and Star are tied at 6-4 then there’s a four-way logjam at fourth place with TNT KaTropa, Phoenix, GlobalPort and Barangay Ginebra toting identical 6-5 slates. Rain Or Shine is 5-5 and Blackwater, 5-6. Out of contention are Mahindra at 3-7, Meralco at 3-8 and NLEX at 2-9.

If Star and Alaska win tomorrow, the Aces clinch second place and a twice-to-beat advantage because of the winner-over-the-other rule. Alaska beat Star, 97-90, in overtime so that’s the tiebreaker in case both teams wind up 7-4. 

Under tournament rules, there will be no playoff to break any tie unless it is for eighth place. So a tie for second between Alaska and Star will be settled by the simple winner-over-the-other rule. If Alaska wins tomorrow, Rain Or Shine will drop to 5-6 and tie Blackwater for eighth place. That will mean a knockout playoff between the Elasto Painters and the Elite to decide the last quarterfinalist. If Rain Or Shine loses to Alaska, it will be the Painters’ fourth straight loss. Rain Or Shine has struggled since Raymond Almazan, recently named to the Gilas pool, went down with a calf injury and sat out the last five outings. He’s averaging 13 points and 11.6 boards this conference.

In the event of a playoff, Rain Or Shine will be favored against Blackwater on the strength of the Painters’ 107-93 win during the eliminations. But you can’t count out the Elite even if Blackwater has lost four of its last five. The Elite has never advanced to the playoffs in two years in the league and the team is extremely motivated to make a breakthrough. 

If Star and Alaska win, this will be the standings for the first seven spots----1. San Miguel Beer, 2. Alaska, 3. Star, 4. TNT, 5. GlobalPort, 6. Ginebra and 7. Phoenix. The quotient system will be applied to rank the four teams with identical records. In this case, TNT has the highest quotient of +28, GlobalPort next with +1 then Ginebra at -6 and Phoenix at -23. That will leave TNT to face GlobalPort and Star to battle Ginebra in separate best-of-three series. Alaska will meet Phoenix with a twice-to-beat edge while San Miguel will take on the Rain Or Shine-Blackwater playoff winner, also with a twice-to-beat advantage.

If Star and Rain Or Shine win tomorrow, Blackwater is eliminated outright and the Hotshots move up to No. 2. Alaska, TNT, Rain Or Shine, GlobalPort, Ginebra and Phoenix will be tied with 6-5 records and their ranking will be determined by the quotient system. Excluding the result of the Alaska-Rain Or Shine game, the Aces enjoy the highest quotient of +34.

If Mahindra and Alaska win, there will be a playoff for eighth spot between Rain Or Shine and Blackwater. The Aces take solo second with 7-4. Star, TNT, Ginebra, GlobalPort and Phoenix will be tied with 6-5 records and their standing to be decided by the quotient system.

If Mahindra and Rain Or Shine win, seven teams will be tied with identical 6-5 records. The quotient system will rank Star, Alaska, Rain Or Shine, TNT, GlobalPort, Ginebra and Phoenix from No. 2 to No. 8 to determine the quarterfinal pairings. Blackwater will end up No. 9.

Ginebra coach Tim Cone said with the Barangay’s come-from-behind 90-80 win over NLEX last Sunday, he’s spared from facing San Miguel Beer with a twice-to-win disadvantage. A loss to NLEX could’ve sent Ginebra to a playoff against Blackwater for eighth spot with the discouraging reward of meeting the Beermen in the quarterfinals.

With the last four scenarios available, Ginebra could finish as high as No. 5 if Mahindra and Alaska win tomorrow. That would mean Ginebra battling TNT in a best-of-three series in the quarterfinals. Ginebra has now won three of its last four games and the loss in that stretch came with Japeth Aguilar out of commission. Ginebra leads the league in defense, giving up only 82.8 points a game and holding opponents down to .373 field goal percentage. It’s also No. 1 in assists. San Miguel is No. 1 in rebounding and second chance points. Alaska is No. 1 in forcing turnovers and No. 2 in turnover points, assists and second chance points. TNT is No. 1 in offense with a 98.4 clip. Star is No. 1 in steals, field goal percentage and turnover points. GlobalPort is No. 1 in three-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Those six teams are legitimate title contenders and the stats indicate why they’re likely to figure prominently in the race for the crown.

Postscript. Thanks to PBA chief statistician and PBAologist Fidel Mangonon for churning out the numbers to explain the four possible scenarios left to settle the standings at the end of the eliminations.