Formidable

I would like to hear what Sen. Antonio Trillanes has to say about the latest SWS survey where President Rodrigo Duterte broke all records, posting an “excellent” net satisfaction rating as of end-2017.

Trillanes predicted most Filipinos would be dismayed by Duterte by the end of 2017. That would be the beginning of his end. 

Well, the only reliable measures we have are the public opinion polls. Pulse Asia showed eight out of 10 Filipinos approved of the way the administration was doing its job. The SWS confirms that with its own survey results showing 79 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the President.

With only nine percent of SWS respondents unsatisfied with Duterte’s work, the President gains a net satisfaction rating of 70 percent. That, in SWS’s view, merits a rating of “excellent.” Duterte is the first president, since opinion surveys were regularly undertaken, to have achieved such a rating.

What makes the “excellent” ratings more remarkable is that 2017 was a contentious year for the President. He was taken to task for the so-called “extra-judicial killings” accompanying the drug war. Several high-profile cases of minors killed during police operations grabbed the headlines. International human rights groups bemoaned what they perceived as the deterioration of the rule of law in the country.

2017 was a year marred by many controversies. A shabu shipment worth over P6 billion managed to pass through Customs and nearly made it to the open market. Several Duterte appointees were yanked from their post by the President himself for some “whiff” of corruption. The number of Cabinet nominees rejected by the Commission on Appointments is probably a record in itself.

2017 was the year a sitting senator was brought to jail on drug-related charges. Feminists repeatedly attacked Duterte for making “sexist” remarks. The leftist groups were busy attacking the president for what they perceive to be a drift towards dictatorship. Clergymen were never hesitant to criticize the President for his coarse language and blunt attitude.

Above all, terrorists overrun an entire city. It took six months of house-to-house fighting to finally crush the terrorist force.

The sum of all these did not dent Duterte’s popularity. On the contrary, he appears even more popular, even more broadly trusted.

There are some positive things, too. Through 2017, the President engaged in highly productive diplomatic missions to key partners. Towards the end of the year, the Philippines hosted the ASEAN@50 summit meetings. Duterte was projected as an important regional leader.

More important, he brought home the bacon. Financing and tourism flows from China immediately spiked. Investment support from Japan increased significantly as well. Duterte’s high-level diplomacy was boosting the domestic economy.

Our GDP growth for 2017 is threatening to break into the 7 percent level. Inflation has been managed well. The construction boom continues. The much vaunted infra program that will yank our economy into the 21st century has taken off as promised.

By the end of 2017, public optimism was at its highest. Business confidence is robust. There is an encompassing sense the economy will only get better. People’s lives will inevitably improve.

Political history teaches us this unbendable rule: no regime collapses at the height of an economic boom. No national leader is taken down when the economy is on a roll.

This is the same unbendable rule that makes a second term for Donald Trump a real specter. He might falsely claim credit for the unprecedented stock market highs the US is now experiencing. But who wants to spoil a really good party in progress?

Decomposing Duterte’s numbers, we find that he scored best in fighting terrorism. Marawi was not his downfall. It is his redemption.

Geographically, Duterte scores best in Mindanao. This is understandable, considering he is the island’s favorite son. But his second best score is registered in the Metro Manila area, traditionally the opposition bailiwick. The economic boom and the palpably improved peace and order situation will have to be credited for this.

In terms of class, Duterte scores very well in the lowest D income bracket. That tells us there is no despair simmering in the grassroots. The other opinion polls in fact tell us there is growing hope among the poor that the future will bring about better conditions.

Capital

Approval, satisfaction and trust ratings translate into measures of a leader’s “political capital.”

As in the business sense of the term, political capital is an asset. It allows the leader elbowroom to pursue visions and push reforms, confident his base of support is strong. A leader with high approval and trust ratings is a formidable leader.

Popularity is not the end-goal of political leadership. It is an asset that makes political leadership effective and decisive. Strong public support enables leaders to leave a lasting legacy to the societies they govern.

Duterte’s high ratings are a measure of the degree of public consensus a leader might tap to define long-term directions. Those ratings assure citizens we are not a divided society.  A high degree of consensus should embolden all of us to dare and forge ahead.

Duterte’s high ratings should encourage him to resist populist pressures and fend off oligarchic demands. He has both the personality and the inclination to do that.

He promised us change. He is in a good position today to deliver on that promise.

He can do that only if the political capital he holds is not hijacked by people who say they are his allies even as they pursue self-serving goals.