Change is just beginning

Globalization is happening at warp speed and there are those who are forecasting a future world in turmoil – whole industries are disappearing and jobs being lost by millions. Education seems unable to catch up and we are reaching a stage where it seems a college degree is not an automatic passport for success as it used to be. 

Populist leaders have appeared all over the world as people search for answers that are simple to understand. People want the world to become what it used to be when “life was simpler” and problems were “solvable.” So either “make America great again”; or just let one man who seems to know all the answers take over and make decisions for the entire nation.

But the change that is happening is inevitable because at the very center of this revolution we are going through is technology – which is accelerating change at unbelievable speed. But instead of resisting change, we should welcome it. In fact today is the best time ever in human history. This is the theme of Kevin Kelly’s new book THE INEVITABLE: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future.

Kelly uses graphic terms to describe the impact of rapid technological change on our daily lives. For example, he calls it “...an assault of the changing digital landscape.” When everything around you is upgrading, this puts pressure on your digital system which necessitates maintenance. You may not want to upgrade but you must because everyone else is. It’s an upgrade arms race.

“I used to upgrade my gear begrudgingly (why upgrade if it still works) and at the last possible moment...Upgrade this and suddenly you need to upgrade that, which triggers upgrades everywhere. I would put it off for years because I had the experience of one tiny upgrade of a minor part disrupting my entire working life. But as our personal technology is becoming more complex, more co-dependent upon peripherals, more like a living ecosystem, delaying upgrading is even more disruptive.

 If you neglect ongoing minor upgrades, the change backs up so much that the eventual big upgrade reaches traumatic proportions. 

So I now see upgrading as a type of hygiene. You do it regularly to keep your tech healthy. Continual upgrades are so critical for technological systems that they are now automatic for the major computer operating systems and some software apps. Behind the scenes the machines will upgrade themselves slowly changing their features over time. This happens gradually so we don’t notice they are ‘becoming.’ We take this evolution as normal.”

Becoming is the first technological force that Kelly says will shape the inevitable future. He says that technological life in the future will be a series of endless upgrades. “And the rate of graduations is accelerating. Features shift, defaults disappear, menus morph.... No matter how long you have been using a tool, endless upgrades make you a newbie – the new user often seen as clueless. In this era of becoming everyone becomes a newbie. Worse we will be newbies forever. That should keep us humble.”

Everyone of us will be endless newbies in the future simply by trying to keep up. First, most of the important technologies that will dominate life 30 years from now have not yet been invented. Second, the new technology will require constant upgrade. Third, the cycle of obsolescence is accelerating – the average life span of a phone app is a mere 30 days. You won’t have time to master anything before it is displaced.

Being an endless “newbie” is the “new default for everyone, no matter your age or experience.”

Perhaps, the one thing that will “change everything” will be cheap, powerful, ubiquitous artificial intelligence. To understand how robot replacement will happen, Kelly broke down human-robot relationship into four categories:

• Jobs humans can do but robot can do even better;

• Jobs humans can’t do but robots can;

• Jobs we didn’t know we wanted done;

• Jobs only humans can do – at first.

In the coming years, human-robot relationships will become more complex. But Kelly sees a recurring pattern emerging. No matter what your  current job or your salary, you will progress through a predictable cycle of denial again and again. Here are the Seven Stages of Robot Replacement:

1. A robot/computer cannot possibly do the tasks I do.

2.  Ok. It can do a lot of those tasks, but it can’t do everything I do.

3. OK it can do everything I do except it needs me when it breaks down which is often.

4. Ok. It operates flawlessly on routine stuff, but I need to train it for new tasks.

5. Ok. Ok. It can have my old boring job, because it’s obvious that was not a job that humans were meant to do.

6. Wow, now that robots are doing my old job, my new job is much more  interesting and pays more.

7. I am so glad a robot/computer cannot possibly do what I do now. 

Kelly writes that this cannot be a race against machines because humans will lose. This is a race with machines. In the future, people will be paid on how well they work with robots. Ninety percent of workers will be machines.

The 12 technological forces that will shape our inevitable future are: Becoming, Cognifying, Flowing, Screening Accessing, Sharing, Filtering, Remixing, Interacting, Tracking, Questioning, and Beginning. 

Kevin Kelly  begins and ends his book with unbounded optimism about the future. Today, he says is just the beginning; and, it is the most amazing moment in human history. 

Creative writing classes for kids/teens 

Young Writers’ Hangout for Kids & Teens on December 2 and December 9 (1:30-3pm/independent sessions).  All sessions are at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street. For registration and fee details text 0945-2273216 or email [email protected].

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Email: [email protected]