They’ll revert to bombing, kidnapping, extortion

Retaking Marawi from Islamic State-linked jihadists was just a matter of time for state forces. No militia, even if richly provisioned at the start, would withstand the onslaught of a professional army. Superiority in materiel and training routed the combined Maute and Abu Sayyaf that had laid siege to the Lanao del Sur capitol for five months. Same with their fellow-terrorists in Mosul, Iraq, in July and Raqqa, Syria, last week.

IS remnants in the Middle East and Southeast Asia must have assessed their defeats by now. Even if they had reigned for three years at the edges of Iraq-Syria, controlling territory was never to work. Reestablishing the caliphates of old will only fail in an ever secular modern world.

Still there are deep ethnic and economic resentments for Islamist misinterpretation to feed on. Muslim youth radicalization worldwide will continue, analysts believe. Mindanao will be no exception. On the Internet are articles, sites, and blogs to entice Muslim millennials to war.

Jihadists will revert to the old abductions, bombings, and extortion. Such asymmetrical warfare is expected, says Armed Forces spokesman Maj. Gen. Restituto Padilla.

That is why security officials opt to keep martial law in Mindanao. Militants remain armed and dangerous: the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters in Maguindanao; Ansar al-Khalifa Philippines in South Cotabato and Sarangani; and Abu Sayyaf originals in Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi. Fierce fighting is ongoing in the latter three western provinces to wipe out terrorists who make a fortune from kidnapping and piracy.

Martial law allows warrant-less searches and arrests. Thus were nabbed the father of the Maute terrorist brothers in an army checkpoint en route to Marawi early in the siege. Thus too were interdicted child-soldier reinforcements to Marawi from faraway Sarangani. Warnings of house-to-house searches, Padilla recounts, convinced certain political clans in towns around Marawi to surrender hundreds of long arms unauthorized for civilian licensing. Neutralized as well were narco-politicians believed to have provided arms and cash to the Marawi militants.

Martial law cannot be forever, though. Sooner or later the army would have to pull out. Counter-terrorism in Mindanao would have to become a community endeavor. By this, Padilla means civilian vigilance. Citizens must be watchful about arms stockpiling and strangers’ movements. So used were Marawi folk to mobilizations of politicians’ private armies that they paid no heed to the Maute arms, ammo, and provisions buildup before the assault last May. Had the military been properly informed, the siege could have been nipped in the bud.

Gun control and prevention of “rido” eventually must return to police hands. The national police must make the political warlords register to keep their allowable firearms at home. No firearms should be displayed. Strict enforcement would convince them that no politician or clan is being favored.

Not only Marawi but the whole of Mindanao needs social and physical rebuilding. Infrastructures are needed to equalize opportunities for Muslim and Christian communities alike. So basic are waterworks and sewerage, roads, ports, electricity, telecoms, markets, and irrigation. Thence there would be transportation, trade, and tourism from which all could benefit. Economic and social departments must ensure agricultural support, employment, market links, health, sanitation, and housing assistance.

Crucial to containing radicalization is education. This cannot be left alone to schools. Instruction in math, sciences, and humanities widens perspectives. Madrasahs and Muslim clerics can help straighten out violent interpretations of the Koran. Beyond classrooms, however, people need to feel equal in benefiting from infrastructures and services. Discrimination breeds hatred and violence.

As a soldier, Padilla knows only too well that there’s still a Moro separatist problem to solve. A cease-fire exists only momentarily. Political solutions beyond martial law are awaited, starting with expanded autonomy in terms of power and territory. Violence cannot go on as a livelihood.

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