Extending martial law

Give Duterte diehards an A for honesty in the House of Representatives: they don’t need a security briefing, they said, to decide on the President’s request for an extension of martial law in Mindanao until the end of the year.

Some legislators are expressing words of caution about prolonging martial law in Mindanao; a smaller group is lambasting President Duterte outright.

But you and I know that the President’s request for an extension will breeze through Congress – more easily in the Palace rubberstamp House than in the Senate, but it will undoubtedly be approved by both chambers.

The approval won’t be due entirely to sycophancy. President Duterte’s letter requesting an extension of martial law in the entire Mindanao, transmitted to Congress by his executive secretary, carries details provided by the Armed Forces of the Philippines on the situation in Marawi and the risk of the Islamic State-Maute threat spreading way beyond the city. The threat is genuinely spooking even several foreign governments that are confronting IS terrorism.

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Lawmakers will have to weigh those risks against the impact of prolonged martial law on businesses in Mindanao, notably tourism and travel-related enterprises.

Foreign investment plans will also be on hold until there is some degree of certainty that the IS-Maute threat has been contained. The Islamic State is sowing lethal havoc in several foreign capitals. Several foreign governments and their private investors are taking seriously the possibility that IS militants, now being driven out of their strongholds in Iraq and Syria, could set up a new base in Mindanao.

While martial law carries negative connotations anywhere, the IS threat is worrying travelers and investors even more. And the most worrisome aspect is the possibility that the IS threat could spread to the Visayas and all the way to Metro Manila.

Because the AFP circa 2017 is more trusted than Ferdinand Marcos’ military, no one has come out so far with credible accusations that Duterte is wagging the dog to justify the extension of martial law all the way to New Year 2018.

When the administration asks Congress to choose between martial law and IS-Maute-Abu Sayyaf terrorism, the choice will be easy for the majority of lawmakers.

Especially with the President enjoying jaw-dropping high approval and trust ratings in the latest poll.

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In his letter to Congress, Du30 stressed that the “rebellion” by the IS-Maute and their affiliates “persists” in Marawi “and other parts of Western and Central Mindanao.”

The four barangays in Marawi still controlled by the Mautes, according to Du30’s letter, cover the city’s commercial districts with about 800 structures.

Duterte explained in his letter: “The rebels have likewise holed up in mosques, madrasahs, and hospitals, thereby restricting the government troops’ offensive movements, as they have to consider the safety of civilian hostages and trapped residents nearby.”

Security officials call the umbrella group of the Mautes, Abu Sayyaf, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and the Ansarul Khilafah Philippines the DIWM, for Da’watul Islamiyah Wallyatul Masriq, inspired by IS or DAESH (for the Islamic State’s full Arabic name a-Dawla al-Islamiya ti al-Iraq wa al-Sham).

Despite the “considerable decline” in the number of rebel fighters, the leadership of the DIWM-DAESH “largely remains intact,” Duterte informed Congress, citing assessments of the heads of the defense department, AFP and Philippine National Police.

The Mautes are also “vigorously recruiting” to replace the fighters they have lost, Du30 stressed. He said they have been found to possess “high-powered and military-grade weapons such as rocket-propelled grenades and a large supply of ammunition.” Weapons, ammunition and other supplies are being smuggled into the city, he said, with the help of private armed groups and supporters of some sympathetic local politicians.

The commander-in-chief has linked to the Maute “rebellion” the beheadings of hostages by the Abu Sayyaf as well as recent BIFF attacks in North Cotabato and Region 12.

“To compound the situation, foreign terrorist fighters and organizations have shown active support for the local rebel groups,” Duterte wrote.

Part of his explanation, however, raises questions on how long he intends to keep martial law in place. The DIWM-DAESH, he wrote, “remains scattered in various areas in Mindanao… pursuing offensive actions and conspiring to attain their overall objective of establishing a wilayat or caliphate in Mindanao.” The Abu Sayyaf, he said, is planning attacks in Basilan, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos City, Zamboanga City and Lanao del Norte.

Setting up a caliphate is a long-range objective whose attainment can take decades. How long will martial law be used against this threat?

Without martial law, the president and commander-in-chief can still call out the armed forces to quell lawlessness. Congress can tweak the Human Security Act so security forces can use it for counterterrorism without worrying about rotting in prison for making an honest mistake, which is common in this type of mission.

Congress is expected to grant the President’s request for an extension of martial law. But lawmakers must perform their mandated duty of providing a system of checks and balances to executive power, by carefully scrutinizing the reason cited for the duration of the extension.

While the AFP has so far given no reason for the public to fear Duterte’s military rule, martial law is an unnatural state in a free society. It cannot be the new normal in Mindanao, or anywhere in this democratic country.

Lifting martial law is also the best indication of the restoration of stability and business as usual in Mindanao.