Yearling

Rodrigo Roa Duterte has been in office for a year. That is a striking realization.

Some fret over the subsequent realization: that this man will be president for five more years. That could mean five more years of leadership by improvisation. Five more years of a brutal drug war that worries civil libertarians. Five more years of off-the-cuff policymaking, spiced with vulgar language and laced with incoherent action.

There will be many assessments made from many perspectives as this administration turns into a yearling. Not one, to be sure, will fault the President for being boring.

There was hardly a dull moment the last 12 months – except, perhaps, the past week when Duterte decided to go into some sort of hibernation. The bear was in his winter. Except for the staccato of automatic weapons fire in the City of Marawi, there was general quiet on the political front.

For all the 12 months, the new president dominated the national discourse. He was pretty much a rolling circus of invectives, holding all our attention captive. He lectured us on perils facing the nation, hectored us on the existential danger posed by the scourge of drugs and belabored some historical detail, some underreported massacre.

No other previous president had nearly every public appearance covered on live television, cusswords and all. That is a measure both of the man’s entertainment value as well as the pervasiveness of digital media. The surplus of digital channels accommodates all the content Duterte could deliver – and in real time.

We are awash with everything Duterte, be that a boon or a bane. Some relish it while others are fed up. Some mistake the flux for change; others swear they will never vote for anyone from Davao ever again.

I asked a member of the Duterte Cabinet the other day where the President was. I received a long narrative about how the nocturnal Duterte was living in the wrong time zone. He bloomed in Riyadh and in Moscow. The activities there suited his body clock.

Here, waking up early for ceremonial duties takes a toll on him. This is probably why he began his present disappearing act on Independence Day, when he refused to be bright and shiny for the flag-raising ceremonies.

A member of the Estrada Cabinet spoke to me about how they had to cajole the former president to wake up early for important state functions. Erap growled but grudgingly woke up anyway to make it in time for ceremonial engagements.

Duterte, he observed, is a tougher nut to crack. He clings to his habits defiantly. He embraces his eccentricities militantly, including a strangely wrought fashion sense. It is as if he sees conforming to standards is a form of weakness.

His legions of admirers plead for some leeway. At his age, they say, his habits are set. Broadcasters have increasingly used the nickname “Lolo Digong” to refer to the president and his grandfatherly stubbornness.

Soon enough, Duterte has to realize he cannot set all standards based on his own proclivities. He is not the center of the universe. Some benchmarks are set by tradition, some by common practice. He will have to abide by them.

First, Duterte must disabuse his mind of the thought he was elected because of his eccentricities. He was elected because he was the best of a paltry menu of options. People voted for him because they thought he represented the best possibility for effective governance.

He should not wallow in his eccentricities, therefore. He must demonstrate he can get government to work. Half of his Cabinet have proven to be mediocrities; half his ruling coalition middling. On his second year, he should raise the standards of excellence in government. This might be a good time for a change of personnel.

The big numbers are not encouraging. The stock market index is exactly where it was when he entered the picture. It was dragged down a few months ago by fleeing foreign money spooked by the things that came out of Duterte’s mouth.

Our exports have fallen. The investments have yet to materialize. The much touted infra program remains pretty much on the drawing boards. Most important: the poor see no path to a prosperous future.

When he delivers his SONA a few weeks from now, Duterte must be aware it is his job to talk up the market. We cannot rely on leveraged assistance from other countries. Our market must be credible and our economy efficient so that we attract better investments than what we get from official channels.

The President must offer a believable vision, a comprehensive package of policies that will make his promise of change substantial rather than merely rhetorical. Our people must have a program to cling to, a reason to be hopeful.

Let us hope Duterte’s hibernation is a thoughtful one. He is President. He must behave like one. He must consider his options and decide how his immense political capital will be expended. Right now, that stock of political capital could simply dissipate in the senseless chatter that is our politics.

Hibernation can be immensely enlightening. It allows the President time to collect his thoughts and define his place in the scheme of things. Without a mob of favor seekers and journalists pressing for a presidential quote to adorn their pet stories, Duterte may find the solace to devise (or revise) strategy.

The first year was harried but directionless. Our people do not want the same speeches repeated five more years.