Imploding

Two weeks in office, Donald Trump managed to reduce US foreign policy to shambles.  He picked fights with America’s closest allies and spread uncertainty in all the world’s capitals.

Maybe he should not be allowed to talk to foreign leaders without adult supervision.

Earlier this week, Trump turned hostile during a phone conversation with the Australian prime minister over a deal (concluded by the Obama administration) where the US agreed to take in 1,200 refugees currently detained in Nauru. The American President called it a “dumb deal.” The phone conversation was cut short. Consequently, analysts pronounced US-Australia relations to be at their lowest point ever.

Australia has been one of America’s closest allies. Australians have sent troops to nearly every war the US waged in the last century. Now that relationship is badly in need of repair.

This week, too, Iran tested ballistic missiles. Trump’s spokesman said the Iranians were now being put “on notice.” What exactly that phrase meant puzzles all the experts.

Trump has been very critical of the nuclear deal with Iran that resulted in the release of billion of dollars of frozen Iranian assets. Notwithstanding, the deal is a multilateral agreement among several countries and the US cannot unilaterally walk away from it.

Trump’s first foreign visitor was UK prime minister Teresa May. As part of the niceties, May invited Trump to visit London. Within hours, a million Britons signed an online petition objecting to such a visit.

Through the campaign and well into his presidency, Trump repeated the line that the US has been taken advantage of by every country on earth. He complained the Europeans were not carrying their weight to support NATO. He even called the military alliance obsolete.

Now, in the first days of his presidency, Trump watches as Russia appears to be increasing military pressure on her border with Ukraine. Western military strategists believe Moscow will attempt rewriting the border between the two countries just as it did with Crimea.

Trump also chided Korea and Japan for not paying enough in hosting US forces. Now his secretary of defense is touring the two countries trying to make amends.

The same defense secretary also echoed Trump’s line about containing China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea. What the US can actually do about it is an open question. The Philippines has declared it will not go into joint patrols with the US Navy in the area to avoid provoking China.

The US now finds itself all alone confronting the powerful Chinese force in the South China Sea. None of the ASEAN countries have volunteered any help. President Duterte warned the Americans against positioning war materiel on Philippine soil.

Last week, Mexican diplomats were actually in the White House preparing for the visit of the Mexican president when Trump announced his plan to impose higher tariffs on Mexican exports to the US to help defray the costs of building that wall through the length of a very long border. Informed of the plan, the Mexican president canceled his scheduled visit and pulled out his diplomats from the White House.

Imposing levies on Mexican exports will actually harm American consumers. They will end up paying for that stupid wall.

Last week, too, Trump issued an executive order effectively banning from entry to the US nationals of seven predominantly Muslim countries. That order produced spontaneous protest actions in airports across the US. The order is now under legal challenge in several courts.

While his aides might be engaged in semantic acrobatics trying to convince everyone the travel ban is not an anti-Muslim measure, it is clear the move reaps only scorn across the Muslim world. America seems to be losing friends by the day.

Even in Moscow, attitudes seem to be changing quickly. During the campaign, Vladimir Putin was said to be supportive of Trump – but mainly out of disdain for Hillary Clinton. Now President Trump is parodied ruthlessly in the Russian press.

Should the Russians begin redefining its borders with Ukraine, one can only surmise how Trump will react. Redefining the border is only one piece of a larger strategy. Everywhere, it seems, Putin is bent on extending his sphere of influence – at US expense, of course.

Analysts are wondering how long Trump can carry on with this destructive act. He seems bent on burning bridges and building walls rather than reviving alliances and nourishing partnerships.

Meanwhile, our embassy in Washington remains without an ambassador. The first one considered for the job decided to stay home and supervise our hosting of the ASEAN. The second one, unfortunately, was beset with medical issues.

Asked about the posting, President Duterte declared he was not inclined to fill the post just yet. That seems like a prudent option. Until Trump’s chaotic foreign policy initiatives clear up, our best option is to keep our heads low.

Should Trump maintain his anti-immigrant stance, 300,000 Filipinos illegally staying in the US could face deportation proceedings. Should Trump pursue his protectionist views on trade, he could harm our exports and curtail our BPO sector. Should Trump decide to take a hostile position at the South China Sea, we should avoid getting dragged into an armed confrontation between the two superpowers.

Not naming an ambassador to Washington just now is probably most tactful. We do not even know what Trump’s attitude towards the Philippines is. Must later, if US foreign policy settles, we could choose a person fit for the job of keeping our bilateral relations predictable.