Juncture

President Rodrigo Duterte is due to visit Beijing “very soon.”

This visit will mark an important juncture in what is arguably our most important bilateral relationship. It will signal a rebalancing of that vital relationship, very likely away from the disastrous course taken by the Noynoy presidency.

Our bilateral relationship took a bad turn when Noynoy assumed the presidency. He adopted an unduly hostile stance towards our powerful neighbor, rattling his rusty saber at every opportunity. During the ASEAN Summit in Bali he refused to shake the hand of the Chinese head of government. In his state of the nation address, he interpreted the South China Sea issues as irreconcilable issues of sovereignty rather than reconcilable resource disputes.

Then the massacre of Chinese tourists happened at the Luneta. The event was totally mishandled. Noynoy refused to apologize to China for what happened.

Beijing did not conceal its dislike for Aquino. The country suffered because of that.

Bilateral trade and investments between our two countries declined markedly over the past six years. China’s imports from the Philippines in 2015 was only $19 billion compared to $53 billion from Malaysia, $37 billion from Thailand, $29.8 billion from Vietnam and $27.6 billion from Singapore.

In terms of China’s overseas investments in the ASEAN countries, the numbers are starker. In 2015, the Philippines ranked 9th out of the ten regional economies as recipient of Chinese investments, besting only tiny Brunei.

Singapore received $4.9 billion, Laos $1.35 billion and Indonesia $1.32 in Chinese direct investments. The Philippines received a measly $24 million in direct investments, far lower than the $39 billion Filipino companies invested in China.

Of China’s outbound tourist flow, 7.9 million went to Thailand, 2.1 million went to Singapore, 1.7 million went to Vietnam, 1.6 million went to Malaysia and 1.4 million went to Indonesia. Less than half a million of that burgeoning tourist traffic went to the Philippines, almost half the number of Chinese tourists Cambodia received.

Cooperation in building infra and sharing technologies follows the same pattern. China supported major infra projects in our neighboring economies, almost none in our economy.

This is the reason why Vietnam, despite its own reef issues with China, took care to nurture their bilateral economic relationship with the regional superpower. Right after the ASEAN summit earlier this month, Vietnamese leader Nguyen Xuan Phuc visited Beijing just four months after taking office and signed numerous trade and investment agreements.

With her own galloping economic growth slowing down to a trot, China needs growth in the neighboring countries to maintain economic momentum. That emerging economic configuration ought to include us.

Fortunately, President Duterte is a pragmatic man with a clear understanding of the strategic situation. His forthcoming visit to Beijing will set the rebalancing of our bilateral relationship moving.

Overloaded

Trains of the MRT-3 continued to stall several times last week, although this time the disruptions took only a few minutes to correct.

Basic maintenance of the system can only go so far. The very design of this system did not envision the volume of passengers it is now required to serve.

Back in 2007, the MRT began taking in more than the maximum number of passengers it was designed to carry. That puts great strain on the various components of the system: the trains, the tracks and the electrical source.

Increasing the number of rail cars in service, extending each train to four cars instead of three and increasing frequency will only accomplish so much. Passenger load has long surpassed the design capacity of what is really a tram disguised as a light rail.

As early as 2011, the maintenance company wrote the MRT to say that ridership, already exceeding maximum capacity, was rising fast. The overloading could damage the whole system.

Unavoidably, we will need a parallel mass transit system to carry more of the Edsa passenger load. This could be the Rapid Bus Transit system intended to be put in place or even the expensive subway JICA has proposed.

Earlier this month, current maintenance service provider Busan Universal Rail issued a rather impressive accomplishment report. After only a month since they took over January this year, Busan increased the number of trains in service from 13 to 16. By the end of April, they had 18 trains operating. They expect to have 20 trains, with 3 in reserve, servicing the line.

As of July 18 this year, Busan completed grinding of the rails along the entire stretch of the MRT-3 line to reduce noise and improve ride quality. This accomplishment reduces the risk of fault and breakdowns.

The service provider likewise purchased spare rails to quickly replace rail segments that have fallen beyond repair. Busan likewise improved local repair capabilities, including fabrication of parts no longer available from the suppliers, to improve their ability to cope with breakdowns.

It is notable that Busan, one of the best in the business, is operating on a budget lower than previous service providers. DOTC undersecretary for rails, Noel Kintanar, is working closely with both the MRT-3 management and the service provider to ensure quicker reaction time to respond to faults and breakdowns.

Still, even with improved management and maintenance, breakdowns will still happen. The system is grossly overloaded.

There are only so many trains the MRT-3 could add to this system, given the limitations of headway between trains. Adding a fourth carriage to the train will help, for a time. A new system must be quickly built to support the MRT-3.