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Opinion

Confusion

FIRST PERSON - Alex Magno - The Philippine Star

Utter confusion, in fact, to be British about it.

Over a week after the Brexit vote, no British leader seems to know exactly what happened – and exactly what will happen next.

The groups that campaigned for the UK to exit the European Union (EU) presented voters with false promises. They promised voters there would continue to be free movement of goods but not of people across borders.  They promised English farmers they would retain EU subsidies even if the UK cuts contributions to the common market.

Now Britons are griped by a severe case of buyer’s remorse.

They were not only shortchanged. They were duped by politicians waving the tattered banner of nationalism in pulling off this scam.

Britons were told they would reclaim control of their destiny by voting to exit the EU.  Now they find they are in control of nothing: not their currency, not their stocks, not their companies and certainly not their lives.

The British may want to swallow their pride in the insane aftermath of the Brexit vote. Their European partners, however, seem bent on exacting their pound of flesh from the haughty English.

A day after the vote, the arrogant leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) stood before the European Parliament only to denigrate his colleagues. He has not been heard from since. He had a cause but not a plan.

Meanwhile, the mainstream British parties are in meltdown mode.

The day after the vote, Conservative Party leader David Cameron announced his resignation from the post of prime minister this October. He decided he was not about to preside over the messy process of an actual exit.

Other European leaders, however, signaled October was too long a time. They want the UK to formally notify the EU of their exit as soon as possible and to begin actual disengagement ready or not.

Should the UK delay its exit, this could bring more economic uncertainties harmful to the other members of the Union.  The recession expected for the British economy could contaminate neighboring economies. Prolonged uncertainty will certainly fuel speculation harmful to the euro.

The past few days, leaders of the Conservative Party have been jockeying for position. Notably, Boris Johnson, the fiery advocate of leaving the EU, is considered out of the running. In the aftermath of the vote, he has been exposed a fraud. He, too, had no plan for what would happen.

As for David Cameron, the vote spelt his political death. It was he who called for the referendum, to quell demands from within his party’s ranks. But he campaigned half-heartedly against Brexit and ended up throwing his country into the cauldron.

There is disarray as well on the other side of the aisle.

The opposition Labor Party, for its part, soft-pedaled on its own campaign to remain in the EU. Labor leaders were fearful of provoking their working class base, many of whom were skeptical of the EU.

Nearly the entire “shadow Cabinet” of the Labor Party leader resigned, blaming the fiasco on the poor campaign the party waged. A vote of no confidence has been called, but the trade union-based leadership has held on.

There is surely some room for the emergence of a new party from among the discontented Laborites. This, however, will only guarantee Labor will be shut out of power for many years.

Only Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of the Scottish Parliament, appeared to be speaking with some confidence.

Arguing that the Scots voted overwhelmingly to remain, Sturgeon is now demanding a separate arrangement be worked out between Scotland and the EU. Only recently, it will be recalled, the Scottish nationalists lost a close vote to secede from the UK and establish a separate republic.

Scottish nationalists now appear to exploring a way to leverage the Brexit vote to reopen the debate on independence. The EU, for its part, appears to have shut down further efforts in this direction. Brussels will negotiate only with the UK and not with any component of what appears to be a fraying union.

The Northern Irish also voted stanchly to remain in the EU. But unless they opt to rejoin the predominantly Catholic Republic of Ireland, they have little means at their disposal to do anything dramatic.

As the political leaders of the UK scamper around like headless chickens, the sixth largest economy in the world seems irreversibly headed towards a recession. Whatever detailed plan the political elite may craft to soften the consequences of a dramatic (and stupid) vote, this can never happen ahead of an economic meltdown.

The British pound has not stopped sinking since the results of the vote were determined. The status of London as the financial capital of the world is now under serious doubt. Several large financial institutions are now drawing up plans to relocate to the continental heartland of Europe ahead of the UK finally exiting.

It is not certain if the UK can retain any of the free trade agreements she entered as a member of the EU. She might have to renegotiate each of those agreements from an immensely weaker position.

Our economic planners and businessmen have been busy the past week calming our market. They are downplaying the extent of our economic entanglement with Britain. They are saying only a small number of Filipino workers rely on the UK.

That is all well and good – until we realize the bottom has not been reached and a loud, sucking sound could still emanate from this unseemly predicament.

 

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