More presidential candidates good for Mar

I was a panelist at Joey Concepcion’s first Go Negosyo “Meet the Presidentiables” series with Vice President Jojo Binay as his first guest, and asked the VP about his suspicions of cheating and suggested that the opposition band together to guard against this. Latest developments in the political arena are driving suspicions that the administration’s game plan is to remove all obstacles to ensure the victory of President Aquino’s anointed successor – Liberal Party standard bearer Mar Roxas.

Consider this: Senator Grace Poe is facing disqualification over the residency and citizenship cases filed by a losing senatorial candidate in the 2013 elections; VP Binay is facing plunder charges and possible arrest over the controversial Makati parking building – with such suspicions strengthened when his son Junjun was dismissed by the Ombudsman and banned “for life” from public service a few days before the start of the filing of certificates of candidacy for the coming elections over alleged anomalies regarding the same parking building.

If the game plan is indeed to get the other presidential candidates out of the way – Grace Poe via disqualification and Vice President Binay by having him arrested for plunder – I don’t think this will increase Mar’s chances of winning. In fact, it may even boomerang against him. People are very suspicious about these moves and resenting the perception that they are being virtually arm twisted to have no other choice for president.

While so far there have only been three declared candidates, there are possibilities that it could become a five-way fight for the presidency with Mayor Digong Duterte who sources say is waiting for the last day of filing to declare his candidacy; Senator Miriam Santiago who has hinted a few days ago that she may have a go at the position again when she posted on Facebook, “I’m not going to be coy. Society leaders have urged me to seek the presidency. I can rise to the occasion.” And there are rumors that former president-turned-mayor Erap Estrada wants to throw his hat in the presidential ring.

The more presidential candidates there are, the better for Mar Roxas, who in fact told me a couple of years ago over lunch that he wanted to “do an FVR” – meaning he wanted to follow after the footsteps of Fidel Ramos who was a Cabinet Secretary first before he became president. If one could remember, the 1992 elections had seven candidates – FVR, Miriam Santiago, Ramon Mitra, former Senate president Jovito Salonga, Danding Cojuangco, Imelda Marcos and the late vice president Doy Laurel.

FVR won that race with the smallest plurality with 23 percent of the total votes against Miriam Santiago’s 19 percent, followed by Danding Cojuangco with 18 percent, Mitra 14 percent, Salonga and Marcos 10 percent each and Doy Laurel with a little over 3 percent. A close look at the results and the background would indicate that the candidates cancelled each other out – with FVR and Mitra having virtually come from the same group but were divided when Cory Aquino decided to endorse FVR. Miriam and Jovy Salonga had the same demographic support of voters while Danding Cojuangco and Imelda Marcos divided the votes of the so-called Marcos-based solid north.

Looking at the (hypothetical) scenario for the 2016 elections with five or six candidates, Mar may just very well get his wish to do an FVR for a number of reasons. For one, he has the machinery of the Liberal Party – the biggest party in the country today – along with the advantage of the so-called equity of the incumbent since he is P-Noy’s anointed and therefore has access to the resources of the Office of the President. And whether critics agree or not, the president’s endorsement is still considerable judging from the recent uptick in Noynoy’s approval ratings.

Undecided voters will be divided between Grace Poe and Mayor Duterte, both of whom could also lose out to Erap’s loyal voters estimated at 8 to 10 million (going by the results of the 2010 elections where Erap came second to P-Noy, plus the senatorial elections with his wife and two sons always getting elected). Senator Miriam Santiago will also get a big chunk of the youth vote and the middle class – to the detriment of Grace Poe. Actually, Mar is also gaining traction among certain youth voters if one were to go by the results of the mock elections in UP where he came out on top, ahead of Grace, Miriam, Duterte, and VP Binay at sixth.

At the same mock polls, Bongbong Marcos and Chiz Escudero – both of whom are running for VP – came out fourth and fifth, respectively. It could be a six-way race for VP as well with Congresswoman Leni Robredo, Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes and Gringo Honasan also running. Interestingly, all the other candidates except Bongbong Marcos have connections to the “Bicol express” which could divide the Bicolano votes – to the advantage of Bongbong who is expected to get the “solid north” plus the backing of the Christian population in Mindanao (many of whom come from Ilocano stock), as well as a significant portion of the Region 8 vote which includes Leyte. And if he teams up with Mayor Duterte – as inside sources indicate – then Bongbong will also have access to the mayor’s supporters plus a big number of Metro Manila voters who have been agitating for a Duterte-Marcos tandem.

The more the merrier, and the mathematical “mas o’ menos” could prove to be good for both Mar and Bongbong with a possible Mar-Mar win in 2016 – that is, Mar and Mar-cos.

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