The deal

As expected, the rumor mill was on overdrive yesterday on  the supposed deal with Malacañang that persuaded the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) to end its EDSA camp-out and abort a planned wider mass protest.

Interestingly, the rumor narratives were all the same: Justice Secretary Leila de Lima would quit, as demanded by the INC, and the charges of serious illegal detention against its top leadership, filed by an expelled Iglesia minister, would be dropped.

Since Monday Malacañang has insisted that no deal was struck, and that the rule of law simply prevailed. But people think there’s no such thing as a free lunch in this country, especially when it comes to the INC, so no one is buying the denial.

De Lima herself said yesterday she was unaware of any deal, although like a spurned wife, she probably would be the last to know if she has been promised as a sacrificial lamb at the INC altar.

A scrutiny of the supposed “win-win solution” (“lose-lose” for the public, according to rumormongers) may actually prove that daang matuwid officials weren’t completely lying.

De Lima is expected to quit anyway to run in the 2016 elections, most likely for the Senate. The deal is supposed to have her quit earlier than scheduled. But since she has not announced any date of resignation or even declared a definite decision to seek elective office, who can say if she’s resigning earlier than scheduled – if she does quit?

The filing of certificates of candidacy is from Oct. 12 to 16. That’s just seven weeks away. De Lima said she’s not quitting tomorrow or any time soon. Still, any resignation earlier than Oct. 12 can be considered earlier than scheduled – even if no schedule has been set.

De Lima can quit together with other members of the Cabinet who have declared their intention or are widely believed to be planning to run. To their members, the INC leaders can still take credit for De Lima’s resignation.

Part 2 of the supposed deal is that the criminal complaint filed by expelled INC minister Isaias Samson Jr. would be dismissed by the Department of Justice (DOJ) – exactly the fear he had expressed after the Iglesia announced it would end the rallies that created monstrous traffic jams last week.

This would put the DOJ and daang matuwid on the spot for transactional justice, the incestuous partner of transactional politics. But it’s easy to wiggle out of this promise, if ever it was made: the DOJ can simply sit on the case, as it has on many others, and toss the fulfillment of the supposed commitment to the next administration. Or daang matuwid can welsh on the deal after the elections, when the INC vote is no longer needed.

So daang matuwid mouthpieces can declare, with a straight face and without being struck by lightning, that really and truly, no deal was made with the INC. For their part, INC leaders, having seen their group widely reviled for their traffic-stopping temper tantrum, can save face and claim to their members that, yes, a deal was struck, but it’s predicated on staying hush-hush; just wait for the next chapter, or abangan ang susunod na kabanata.

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Speaking of the much-vaunted INC vote, De Lima will do the nation a favor by riding on her newfound popularity and seeking a Senate seat. The INC protesters liked to hold up open palms, vowing she would get only five votes if she ran. Her performance in the polls would be a good gauge of the INC vote, especially with the ongoing bitter feuding among its leaders.

It’s significant that only a few thousand people showed up at EDSA in all the four days that the religious sect called for warm bodies. The calls were made by word-of-mouth, social media and extensively by SMS – even non-members like me received the messages regularly. But the largest gathering, on the final night on Sunday at the EDSA-Shaw intersection, mustered only about 15,000 as estimated by the police.

After the 1986 people power revolt in which the Catholic Church played a pivotal role, the bishops were also seen as a powerful force that every politician had to reckon with. But the so-called Catholic vote was shown up to be a myth during the presidency of Corazon Aquino. The Church openly endorsed then speaker Ramon Mitra Jr. against the Protestant Fidel Ramos, an EDSA hero and President Cory’s anointed successor. In a field of seven, Mitra placed fourth, behind FVR, Miriam Defensor-Santiago and Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco Jr. Imelda Marcos got more votes than then Senate president Jovito Salonga and vice president Salvador Laurel.

As the Church feared, President FVR promoted birth control, with his health secretary Juan Flavier becoming popular as the nation’s “Mr. Condom.” Even FVR, however, later caved in to Church heat and let go of Flavier, who then ran for the Senate. Despite a vigorous Church campaign against him, Flavier placed sixth in the 1995 Senate race (topped by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) and a strong second (behind Noli de Castro) when he sought re-election in 2001.

The Church also opposed the presidential bid of womanizing, boozing, casino-playing Joseph Estrada; he won by a landslide in 1998.

Candidate Noynoy Aquino himself was not exactly a Church favorite. Although he’s the only son of Ninoy and Cory Aquino, congressman and senator Noynoy was a sponsor of the Reproductive Health bill and did not change his stand during his presidential campaign.

President Noynoy and his tuwid na daan skirmished early with the Church, baring luxury vehicles given as gifts to several bishops by the Arroyo administration. That P-Noy  managed to have the RH law passed was another blow to the Church.

This time, the INC effort to obstruct De Lima’s path, obstruct traffic and (let’s call a spade a spade) obstruct justice has piqued public curiosity about the existence of a so-called INC vote.

Secretary De Lima, deal or no deal, go ahead and run for the Senate.