Warped

This is why Mark Twain warned us sternly about “lies, damn lies and statistics.”

The other day, President Benigno Aquino delivered an upbeat speech before a forum of investors. The delivery was perfunctory, undermining the contents of the speech. The contents, for their part, were deviously deceptive – consisting of selective use of the numbers and dishonest positioning of the figures.

If this speech were a person, it should be liable for felony. If the ghostwriter put words in the President’s mouth, he should be hanged for misleading his boss. If the President himself conceived this speech, it can only be a measure of how detached he is from our people’s economic reality.

Nevertheless, Aquino did not miss the opportunity to blame the media for failing to report all the great things he has done for our economy. If he sounded funny to the wily businessmen listening to his speech, it is because he is.

To begin with, no government can claim to have single-handedly shaped a nation’s economic performance. If governments had such degree of influence over the ebb and tide of economic evolution, they would have long ago banned recessions and outlawed poverty.

Aquino brags that his government has 61 public-private partnership (PPP) projects listed as against the six his predecessor accomplished. He forgets to tell us that PPP is a new concept and was not the preferred method for getting infra done during his predecessor’s term. On the other hand, PPP is supposed to be the centerpiece program of his administration.

He forgets to tell us that this centerpiece program is very much delayed and the only project that might be completed during his term is the Daang-Hari interchange, a miniscule P2 billion project that is two years delayed. The only public works project done to help ease traffic in Metro Manila is that small underpass on the junction of Quezon and Araneta avenues – which was initiated by his predecessor.

Meanwhile, the much-touted 61 approved PPP projects are better read as “power point presentations.” They have yet to be bid out, financed and initiated on the ground. The Calax project tripped over bidding issues causing a two-year delay.

By contrast, the SCTEX and the TPLEX, two massive infrastructure projects were sealed under the previous administration. The NLEX-SLEX connector road, extending the Skyway, was an initiative of San Miguel Corp.

Time has passed us by — and time has its commensurate opportunity costs.

Aquino boasts that foreign direct investments last year rose to over $6 billion. He forgets to tell us that this represents less than two percent of foreign direct investments in the region. Vietnam received over ten times the investment we got.

Among the core ASEAN economies, the Philippines is the laggard in investments. We have among the lowest investment per capita ratio.

He forget to mention that despite frequent repetition of the phrase “reform agenda,” this administration has offered us none. There is hardly any improvement in the ease of doing business in the country, a major hindrance to investment. There is no administration program to reduce red tape, the bane of businessmen.

Aquino frequently boasts of our improved credit ratings. He neglects telling us that these ratings are a function of decades of hard work by his predecessors, moving our economy from a debt crisis towards fiscal sustainability.

Two major reform packages form the foundations for our improved credit rating: Fidel Ramos’ Comprehensive Tax Reform Package and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s courageous adoption of VAT. Both policies provided our fiscal position stable planks to stand on. 

The improved credit rating is likewise a function of our immense foreign currency reserve position, now at a record $81 billion (much larger than our outstanding debt). That position is the product of remittances made by our overseas workers. They are the real heroes of this story, not Aquino.

Aquino conveniently forgets to mention that despite his “Daang Matuwid” rhetoric, corruption ranks very high among investor concerns. From every indication, it is a blight that worsened rather than lessened over the last five years.

Then there is that elephant in the room Aquino dishonestly chose to be silent about: Poverty.

Despite the best effort of our statistical agencies to window-dress the poverty figures (by excluding the Yolanda-hit areas), the official figures show that poverty increased significantly by the last measure. This is confirmed by the self-rated poverty figures culled by polling firms.

The ever-curious Gary Olivar collected the self-rated poverty figures and produced graphs to give us a better picture of what is really happening. Poverty rates improved under three presidencies: Ramos, Estrada and Arroyo. They worsened under two presidencies: Cory Aquino’s and Noynoy Aquino’s.

Why is it that poverty figures grow worse under the Aquino presidencies? Noynoy should have tried to explain that before the businessmen.

Consequently, there is no way we will meet the Millennium Development Goals. Even the Asian Development Bank in its most recent report says the growth target the administration set for this year will not be met.

Aquino in his speech, in order to improve his average growth numbers, included the 2010 figures (when the Philippine economy hit its highest rate of growth on record). Any sane economist will concede that good year to Arroyo.

On the contrary, what has kept us from hitting our potential for growth is the consistent failure of the Aquino II administration to spend as planned for infrastructure development – even as the previous administrations cleared the way for this by resolving the debt situation.

Rather than abet growth, Aquino hampered it.