Turning 65

“Boundless is the ocean where we sail with the wind.”

That’s from Chinese President Xi Jinping, addressing a reception held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing last Sept. 30, the eve of the 65th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.

Among the guests at the reception were government officials from all over China and the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and private delegations from several countries including the Philippines.

Guests were given official translations of the speech of Xi, who seems to favor maritime-themed metaphors. “The giant ship of the People’s Republic is forging ahead against winds and waves… no path forward is smooth sailing,” he said. “We need to have the courage to navigate even deeper waters.”

There was no mention of aggressively staking Chinese claims over disputed waters, and whether the maritime claims would also be boundless – unless you want to read more into Xi’s pronouncement that China “will also unswervingly uphold its sovereignty, security and development interests.”

That line came from a paragraph wherein Xi outlined his country’s commitment “to the path of peaceful development.”

“China is a country that loves peace,” he declared. “And it believes that a bellicose country, no matter how big, is doomed to failure… China will uphold international justice and fairness and promote peace and development of the world.”

This is in line with the oft-repeated Chinese reassurance of its “peaceful rise,” and that the world has nothing to fear from a strong and prosperous China.

For a while people believed it. Apart from opening its enormous market to the world, China dug deep into its pockets, wading into the role of generous global donor with no democratic conditionalities attached, to the delight of despotic regimes.

The Chinese went on a charm offensive, and enjoyed a spectacular debut on the world stage when they hosted the Summer Olympics in 2008, followed by the Shanghai World Expo in 2010.

China is currently embarking on a similar offensive as its turn to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit approaches.

This time, however, the November event will be held as questions are raised about the sincerity of China’s commitment to peaceful development.

Its commitment to “one nation, two systems” – as reaffirmed by Xi in his speech – is also being severely tested. The APEC summit is approaching in the shadow of the pro-democracy Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong. Beijing can put on the widest welcoming grin and roll out the red carpet for foreign guests, but any regime that censors Google and blocks its people’s access to Instagram can only be seen as the Evil Empire.

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Because of China’s recent reclamation to expand islets and atolls or create entirely new islands in the South China Sea, several governments have become concerned about freedom of navigation in the area. 

They understand that even a single new islet developed by China can expand its 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). With its current reclamation activities, the Chinese may soon lay claim even to resource-rich Tubbataha Reef, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in the Philippines’ Sulu Sea.

As it is, Beijing’s claim leaves countries around the South China Sea with barely enough maritime territory for beach resorts and marginal fishing. With Chinese reclamation activities well within our 200-mile EEZ, what’s to prevent them from laying claim even to Manila Bay? Or the entire Palawan?

Some governments are reviewing their economic ties with China and discussing if it would be in their long-term strategic interest to wean themselves from the Chinese market and begin looking for opportunities elsewhere.

They realize that it isn’t going to be easy. One government whose commercial vessels use the South China Sea extensively tracked the number of countries that have China as the biggest trading partner. The foreign government came up with 117.

As alternatives, this government is looking at increasing its trade with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has a market of about 600 million. Other governments are looking at India and South America.

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Governments generally do not take sides in other countries’ territorial disputes or even movements for independence. In the case of China, the hands-off stance is reinforced by close trade ties with the world’s second largest economy.

The international community has interceded in cases of invasion wherein UN-recognized national sovereignty is violated, or in cases of genocide, ethnic cleansing and other gross human rights violations.

These aren’t happening in the waters around China. Beijing has been accused of “creeping invasion” in the South China Sea. With the exception of several skirmishes with its adjacent neighbor Vietnam, however, China has tried to give the impression that it is not resorting to military force or violence to assert its maritime claims. Beijing is not about to give the United States or its allies a reason for military intervention in contested waters.

I don’t see any strong appetite in the US anyway to intervene militarily, no matter how threatened its ally the Philippines may feel.

Despite their rivalry, the US and China continue to promote bilateral ties. In Beijing on the eve of the PROC’s 65th anniversary celebration, tourists could buy “Oba Mao” souvenir bags featuring the smiling face of US President Barack Obama wearing a Mao cap.

Our best hope at this point for protecting our maritime territory is to seek international arbitration. This move has so riled Beijing we’re wondering how it’s going to treat President Aquino when he attends the APEC summit and accepts for the Philippines the rotating role as next year’s host.

There will be a hearing on the arbitration case at the United Nations early next year, wherein China will be given a chance to reply. If it snubs the proceedings, the UN will supply the contrary argument. After nine months, the case will be up for resolution. That will be around the first quarter of 2016.

The Chinese, with whom Filipinos have a history of friendship and economic ties going back to ancient times, are reportedly hoping that bilateral ties will improve once P-Noy is no longer in power.

It’s doubtful that whoever succeeds P-Noy will withdraw the arbitration case, but he or she might have a different approach to promoting bilateral ties while at the same time pursuing territorial claims.

China is a great nation that has achieved so much. The world should be wishing the country even more prosperity and the achievement of its goals.

These days, however, the good wishes are tempered by concerns about how prosperity and “socialism with Chinese characteristics” are shaping its behavior on the world stage.