Feeling déjà vu in America

SAN FRANCISCO – Arriving here for a short visit, I keep getting that déjà vu feeling every time I check out local media and get an election update. They are voting for a new President in a couple of weeks and it seems I had just seen and heard all these viciousness not too long ago.

Well… the Americans were not our teachers in democracy for nothing. The campaigning has been as bad as ours and will be even more so in the homestretch to election day. Even the honesty of the election process had been questioned by one of the candidates... parang sa ‘Pinas!

Actually, millions of Americans have already started to vote over a week ago. You don’t have to be overseas or a media reporter or a member of the police force/armed forces to be able to vote by absentee ballot.

Election day here is not a holiday like it is back at home. Voters have to take time out to vote. Many don’t really care much about this obligation of citizenship. Turnout is not as large as it was in our May election. Historically, they estimate that as a percent of eligible voters, turn out was: 2000, 54.2 percent; in 2004 60.4 percent; 2008 62.3 percent; and 2012 57.5 percent.

Comparing our election last May to their election next month, one also sees  a strong feeling against the establishment as a common thread. People here also feel left out, as they have to work harder for less and less share of the economic pie. Many are as inclined to exercise their right to send “a f**k you vote,” as Michael Moore puts it.

Some Fil-Ams say Trump is their Duterte and I always beg to disagree. Their similarity ends with their unconventional way of campaigning and their colorful language. I think Duterte is truly a man who feels for the people, while Trump is merely on an extended ego trip.

It is difficult to understand why many Fil-Ams are staunch supporters of Trump who is a white supremacist who feels nothing for immigrants like Pinoys. Then again, many Fil-Ams also forget where they came from and seem to think they are actually whites. I have to keep reminding them not to refer to the old country as “PI” because that means something else these days.

I was about to be very disappointed about Fil-Ams until I came across a Rappler story about a Pew Research Center study of Asian Americans. This 2013 demographic survey showed Fil-Ams as the second largest Asian American group at 3.4 million. And contrary to my impression, most Fil-Ams identify themselves as Democrats.

But the number of Republicans is steadily rising. In the primaries, Fil-Ams showed the highest support for Trump among Asian Americans. In the primaries, the Rappler story said 45 percent voted for Clinton and 30 percent voted for Trump.

The crazy thing about the US election this year is the low regard Americans seem to have about the presidential candidates selected by their two major political parties. Many feel they are being made to choose between two evils.

The Washington Post reports “Clinton’s personal ratings among registered voters remain terrible. A mind-boggling 62 percent of respondents in the post-ABC poll said she is not ‘honest and trustworthy,’ and 57 percent of those polled said they had an unfavorable view of her.

“Yet these numbers help explain why Clinton is ahead in the race and could win by a large margin: Trump’s numbers are even worse. A sizable 64 percent in the same poll said Trump is not honest or trustworthy, and an identical percentage said he doesn’t have the temperament to be an effective president. A majority, 58 percent, said Trump is not qualified to be president, and two out of three respondents had an unfavorable view of the GOP nominee.”

According to the polling editor of the Huffington Post, winning the 14  percent of all voters who say they are still undecided is crucial because nearly everyone else can no longer be persuaded: 88 percent of Trump supporters and 89 percent of Clinton backers said they would ‘definitely’ support their current preference.

More than 1.4 million ballots have already been cast, and a superior Democratic ground game is locking in the votes to her advantage. Of the 14 percent undecided voters, 71 per cent are “strongly unfavorable to Trump versus 46 percent who say the same of Clinton, the Huffington Post reports.

Again Michael Moore sums it best: “She is still the second most hated candidate in history, only behind Trump.”

As it was when we had our election, there are surveys upon surveys testing voter sentiment. A new survey seems to pop up daily and there is a survey of surveys that is supposed to be as close a reading of voter preference as we can get.

What was supposed to be a tight race opened wide in recent weeks in favor of the former Secretary of State and First Lady. Washington Post reports major national polls show Clinton leading among likely voters by anywhere from as few as four points, in the Oct. 10-13 Washington Post-ABC News poll, to as many as 11 points, in the Oct. 10-13 NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey.

Even as they also tally popular votes, the one who gets to live in the White House for the next four years is elected by an Electoral College. The Washington Post reports Clinton holds a decisive advantage over Trump in the competition for votes in the Electoral College. Clinton is leading in enough states to put her comfortably over the 270 majority needed to win the presidential election.

While voter preference may change in some battleground states, Clinton is said to have 304 electoral votes as of now. Trump, the GOP nominee, has the advantage in states with an estimated electoral vote total of 138.

What has scandalized many Americans in recent days is the refusal of Trump to say if he would respect the results of the election. Indeed, he had been raising doubts about the election as he calls it rigged against him. This is unheard of here even if it is normal with us.

When Al Gore was contesting the election against George W. Bush, he won the popular vote but the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Bush in that questionable Florida vote count. Gore gallantly conceded to Bush even if it seemed he had grounds to protest. The need to preserve the trust of the people in the electoral system was more important than his personal victory.

That sounds strange to us. If it were in the Philippines Gore would have protested. For us, no one loses an election but is cheated. Just ask Bongbong Marcos.

Other than winning the White House, control of Congress is crucial. Democrats need a net gain of five seats to take outright control of the Senate, four to exercise control if Clinton becomes president.

Nate Silver who has accurately predicted the election of Barack Obama twice, gives Clinton an 87.4 percent chance of winning and Trump 12.6 per cent.

In a sense, the American election is as important to the world as it is for Americans. Whoever wins will have his or her finger in the nuclear bomb button among other things. Hopefully the Americans will vote not in anger or frustration, but in full recognition of the absolute importance of having the right person leading the world’s only superpower.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco.