Duterte warns of war in Mindanao if BBL fails

MANILA, Philippines — President Duterte warned on Thursday a full-blown war might erupt in Mindanao if Congress fails to pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and shift the country’s form of government to federalism.

Duterte, however, said he will not meddle with lawmakers deliberating on the issues.

“It’s up to you. Congress does not want it because it is a trip to hell. But hell will break loose. It’s up to you, I won’t meddle. But if the time comes, I’d tell you, ‘we are already done talking,’” he said.

Duterte made known his stand in a speech during the launching of the Overseas Filipino Bank in Manila late Thursday.

“The only way now is that we have to save the republic. And we will have to go to war again,” Duterte said.

“Because at this time, if nothing happens to the BBL, if we change the Constitution or do not change the Constitution at all, there will be war in Mindanao. I can assure you. Mamili kayo (choose). I cannot control that,” he said.

Duterte said he sees Moros and homegrown extremists joining the Islamic militants to wreak havoc in the Southern Philippines if the administration will not make good its commitment for a separate state for the Moro people.

“At this time, it will be double whammy because my enemy would be their friends. And what would that be? The ISIS,” he said referring to the Islamic State (IS).

Duterte said the IS will remain a threat, noting that he has warned since the start of his term that “on the horizon loom the dark clouds.”

“Whatever it is, you have to give concessions. What the Moros want is some sort of severe form of decentralization,” he said.

Duterte also revealed his concerns following recent talks with Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) founding chairman Nur Misuari. 

“Misuari came out with the idea during (the past) administrations… (a) Republic with a setup of federalism,” Duterte said.

“This is not mine. Those were promises made to the Moros all these years,” he said.  

“With the rise of IS, it becomes doubly troubling for us now. Because while they remain faithful … to Murad, Jakiri and Nur (Misuari),” Duterte said, referring to Moro Islamic Liberation Front chairman Ebrahim Murad and former Sulu governor Yusoph Jakiri who leads a faction of the MNLF.

“I hope that I can deliver. But the final decision will have to be made by the people of the Republic of the Philippines,” he said.

The cost of BBL

 How much will implementing the proposed BBL cost?

Senate President Pro Tempore Ralph Recto raised this question yesterday to press government officials to compute the price tag of the BBL as a “clear fiscal picture” will pave the way for the landmark legislation’s passage.

“We are all for financing peace. I prefer costly peace than a cheap war. But the nation must be told how heavy the burden on the taxpayers will be. How many billions of pesos? And for how long?” Recto asked. 

He said the debate on BBL, which seeks to carve out a new autonomous region in Mindanao, would center on “constitutionality and cost.” 

“It is not that hard to make the bill constitutionally compliant, which is what President Duterte wants,” Recto said.

“But what I think might be contentious is where to source the money required to implement the bill.”

The BBL drafted by the Aquino government, which the version submitted to Congress by the Duterte administration is almost a duplicate of, would have cost P59 billion in its first year of implementation had it passed.

Recto said the issue of financing will definitely crop up in the course of finalizing the BBL. “Because the context here is we have just finished with the first installment of TRAIN (Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion) Law,” he said.

Recto said the nation is still in the midst of tax season and by July, Congress will be taking up the proposed 2019 national budget.

If the cost of the BBL will be tackled in the 2019 budget deliberations, then this early the government must be thinking of where to source the funds, Recto pointed out.

He said the TRAIN package 1 has estimated proceeds of P90 billion annually, but the same week Congress passed it, lawmakers also approved the pay hike for soldiers, which costs P62 billion a year. 

This makes the TRAIN only good for “payroll,” not “Build, Build, Build,” Recto said, referring to the administration’s massive infrastructure program.

“It will be interesting to know what BBL’s cost will be so we can compare it against the potential yield from TRAIN package 2,” Recto explained, referring to Malacañang’s revenue bill that will rationalize fiscal incentives.