Pinoy optimism at record high as Rody begins presidency

MANILA, Philippines - More Filipinos are expecting positive change in the first year of the Duterte administration.

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted days before Duterte assumed the presidency on June 30 showed a record-high number of Filipinos expecting better lives and a better economy in the next 12 months.

The survey, conducted from June 24 to 27 and published in BusinessWorld yesterday, showed that 49 percent of Filipinos expect the quality of their lives to get better compared with three percent who expect it to get worse, yielding a +46 net personal optimism rating.

The results of the latest survey is a record-high based on the 22-year data released by SWS, surpassing the +40 net personal optimism rating recorded in the two most recent surveys released in December 2015 and April 2016.

Meanwhile, 60 percent of Filipinos believe that the economy will improve in the next 12 months, against four percent who said it would get worse, yielding a “very high” +56 net economic optimism.

The latest net economic optimism doubled from April’s +28 and surpassed the record-high +39 in June 2010.

Net personal optimism refers to expectations in personal quality of life, while net economic optimism refers to expectations about the general Philippine economy.

The survey had 1,200 respondents and a net error margin of +/- three percent.

By location, class

Comparing the April and June 2016 surveys, SWS said the net personal optimism remained high across all regions, with significant increases in Metro Manila (+42 to +56), the Visayas (+34 to +42) and Mindanao (+39 to +54).

It dropped one point in balance Luzon, from +42 in April to +41.

Meanwhile, net personal optimism dropped 10 points in Class ABC (+47 to +37), but increased in Class D (+41 to +49) and E (+35 to +39).

Net economic optimism significantly jumped across all regions: +28 to +65 in Metro Manila, +31 to +50 in balance Luzon, +23 to +50 in the Visayas and +27 to +66 in Mindanao.

It also increased in all socioeconomic classes: +32 to +49 among Class ABC respondents, +28 to +57 in Class D and+27 to +54 in Class E.

Comparing presidencies

The +46 net personal optimism rating following the election of Duterte is 10 points higher than the +36 recorded in June 2010, after the election of former president Benigno Aquino III.

After former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo took her oath in January 2001, the net personal optimism was +4. It was +6 in June 2004, almost a month after her re-election.

The first of such surveys conducted after the assumption of former presidents Corazon Aquino, Fidel Ramos and Joseph Estrada showed the net personal optimism at  +31 (May 1986), +33 (September 1992) and +26 (July 1998), respectively.

A survey conducted in 1984, during the time of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, showed the net optimism at -4.

The lowest personal net optimism recorded by SWS was -13 in October 2000 and March 2005, during the Estrada and Arroyo administrations, respectively.

In terms of net economic optimism, the Estrada administration began with a -5, while Arroyo started with +18. It later dipped to the lowest levels during her administration, reaching -50 in May 2005.

The economic outlook surged to +39 after Aquino’s election in 2010, and again enjoyed a significant boost after the recent polls to the record-high +56.