Earth now one degree Celsius hotter

MANILA, Philippines – The Earth is now one degree Celsius hotter than at the start of the 20th century, halfway to the critical two-degree threshold, as the record-breaking trend has continued in 2016, the United Nations (UN) weather agency warned.

In its 2015 annual report on the status of the climate, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also warned that the national climate change plans adopted so far may not be enough to avoid a three-degree temperature rise. 

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the carbon dioxide concentrations in the air would be five times the current level in 500 years if no limits are placed on fossil fuel use, which means the planet would be seven to eight degrees Celsius warmer by that time. 

He said it would then take up to 100,000 years to restore the normal level, noting the urgency of substantially cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the coming few decades.

“Many people now think that the problem is solved since we reached a nice agreement in Paris last year… but the negative side is that we haven’t changed our behaviors,” Taalas said.

According to the WMO Statement on the Status of the Climate in 2015, the year made history with shattered temperature records, intense heat waves, exceptional rainfall, devastating drought and unusual tropical cyclone activity. 

The WMO Statement was released ahead of today’s World Meteorological Day celebration.

“Our planet is sending a powerful message to world leaders to sign and implement the Paris Agreement on climate change and cut greenhouse gases now before we pass the point of no return,” Taalas said.

The worst-case scenario, he added, could be averted by far-reaching measures to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

The WMO said the global average surface temperature in 2015 broke all previous records by a wide margin, at about 0.76 degree Celsius above the 1961-1990 average, because of a powerful El Niño and human-caused global warming. With 93 per cent of excess heat stored in the oceans, ocean heat content down to 2,000 meters also hit a new record.

The record-breaking trend, the WMO said, has continued in 2016. January and February 2016 set yet more new monthly temperature records, with the heat especially pronounced in the high northern latitudes. 

Arctic sea ice extent was at a satellite-record low for both months, according to NASA and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Greenhouse gas concentrations crossed the symbolic and significant 400 parts per million threshold.

“The startlingly high temperatures so far in 2016 have sent shockwaves around the climate science community,” said David Carlson, director of the World Climate Research Program, which is co-sponsored by WMO. 

But Carlson said that it is premature to determine that 2016 would extend a record-breaking streak.