The stakes in the Sereno impeachment
There have been four or five days of Chief Justice Sereno's impeachment hearings in the Lower House and there could be many more days before this will be forwarded to the Senate for the impeachment trial. This has sidelined more important bills like the Bangsamoro Basic Law and others, but our congressmen decided to conduct these hearings even if they have already affirmed that the complaint is sufficient in form and substance to be endorsed to the Senate for trial. The proximate cause of this impeachment was probably the disagreement of the chief justice with some initiatives of the Duterte government, and some of the congressional allies took this as a signal to oust the chief justice.
The obvious beneficiaries of the hearings are the congressmen in terms of media exposure and publicity. Particularly for those aspiring for higher office or reelection in 2019, this is a lot of free publicity. For the other participants like Gadon, who ran for senator in the last election, and the lawyers and resource persons, these are their moments of fame. For opponents of the chief justice, it's time to get even. For the general public who follows the proceedings, it is education time to understand some law and to form an opinion on the participants of the hearing.
But what is really at stake in this impeachment? For Chief Justice Sereno, it is her position, honor and prestige which may be damaged or raised depending on the way the hearing and trial is conducted more than the eventual outcome of the impeachment. It is really the impact of the impeachment process on the people and public opinion that matters and not the final decision. This means that for the politicians involved in the impeachment process, also at stake is their political future depending on the public perception of the congressional hearing and the Senate trial.
From previous experience and the full calendar of the Senate which includes the tax rationalization bills and the BBL, the Senate impeachment trial will likely start January or February next year and could run up to May. It may difficult and not be good politically for the administration to push or railroad the impeachment process in the Senate as it could create a public opinion backlash. So, it will play out naturally and will be a factor when preparations for the 2019 election start by July 2018. Then the political implications of the impeachment will be more pronounced.
It is hard to discern if the impeachment is part of a grand political strategy of the ruling party, or just one of those things that someone suggested at the spur of the moment, or if it is just an initiative of some of Duterte's overeager supporters. Considering the many more pressing issues like terror, the NPA problem, BBL, the drug war, corruption, traffic, and keeping the economy moving, this impeachment seem to be an unnecessary distraction with a very iffy cost to benefit equation and not worth the time and effort. Surely, it was not in the platform of government unveiled in the months after the new administration took over, but politics is a strange animal.
While I have posited that the final decision on the impeachment will matter less than the conduct of the hearings and the trial, the decision will have varying degrees of impact on those involved in particular and the government in general. If the whole impeachment process is perceived to be fair, the decision will be accepted by the public that matters.
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