Impeachment as a strategy?
As of this writing, there are four (4) impeachment complaints in various stages of the process. These are against Vice-President Robredo, Chief Justice Sereno, Ombudsman Carpio Morales, and Comelec Commissioner Bautista.
The one against Robredo has not moved as no Congressman has signed as endorser. The one against Sereno is supposed to have already 25 congressmen endorsers while those for Carpio-Morales and Bautista are in the final stages of making the impeachment papers complete in form and substance. The filers of these impeachment complaints are a mixed bag of persons and organizations whose common traits are that they are DU30 supporters.
The obvious objective of impeachment is the removal of the occupant of the constitutional position who can only be removed by the impeachment process. The consequent objective is the replacement of the occupant with an ally or a more pliant persona who will toe the line of the government. Then there is the corollary effect of instilling fear on the political opposition or any opposition to stifle dissent. This has been done before here and in other countries, and it usually signals a drift from democracy to authoritarianism like in the present case of Turkey and Venezuela.
There are however economic and social implications that weigh in and counters against these movements. As most of the nations all over the world are biased toward a free enterprise economy, including even the Socialists states, investments from both foreign and domestic investors dries up in an authoritarian government. This is why even Russia and China do not project themselves as authoritarian regimes but as democratic societies.
Investments are the crucial components of economic (GDP) growth, more so when consumer confidence/consumer demand and government spending falters and cannot be revved up without a massive inflation. The stock market will be the first to collapse, then the foreign exchange rate, then high unemployment and underemployment, then shortages of goods and services.
Even before the economy falters or goes into a recession, there will be already social implications. The left will definitely take advantage of the authoritarian drift to promote their socialist agenda with demonstrations, rallies, boycotts, and strikes. They will take advantage of the alienation of civil society from the government to push their agenda of government change. The main and social media will go against the government and not all the trolls and the fake news will be enough to counter them, when hardships will hit the people in the stomach.
In international relations, there will be a diplomatic disaster with many countries withholding recognition of our government and cutting off diplomatic and economic relations. There may be some countries that will not sever relations due to trade volume considerations, but international credits will not be available, or if available at punitive costs. The country can and will survive but at a great sacrifice and burden on the people.
We should only look at what's happening to Venezuela right now, as they were the richest country in South America seven years ago, and in the top 20 in per capita income all over the world.
I found it very easy, confident and compelling to write this column as I am old enough to have lived from 1950s up to today, through the martial law years and after, and have witnessed the events and implications/complications in those years. I also have the training, education, and work experience to understand and make sense of everything that was happening.
Impeachment is a small step but it is the wrong strategic step to take if we want to continue the progress of the country. The worst enemies of the DU30 government are the overeager and unthinking supporters who make it difficult for him to govern.
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