Will China reciprocate and accommodate Duterte?
In an earlier column, I had opined that the issue of the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) will not have an immediate impact on the Duterte presidency as it will take some time to resolve or come to an agreement on this matter. Recently it dawned on me that a delay or the longer the issue is unresolved the better it is for China. They are in occupancy and the United Nations tribunal decision had not bothered them geographically and politically. They are in control of the major islands. Playing for time is part of the China strategy and is working against the Philippines.
The recent pivot of the Duterte government towards an appeasement and rapprochement with China, and the recent developments or actions of other countries in the region, the US and Japan makes a rethinking and critical review of our China strategy a continuing process worthy of the best minds in the government. A resolution acceptable to the Filipino people will be a major component of the success of the Duterte administration.
Even with China's attempt to control the sea lanes and the push for "air notification" on the South China Sea airspace, it is my contention that the primary objective of China in the area is really the oil, gas, and other mineral resources. Restrictions on the sea lanes that accounts for over $5 trillion worth of trade and enormous civilian and military air traffic will never be enforceable unless China is willing to risk a full blown war.
China already realized this and will use it as a bargaining chip, as it was always willing to give in on this sea access to avoid antagonizing so many other countries. The main objective is really access to the resources that they will need as China's economic growth will continue growing and the rising per capita income of the people demands more resources.
How does this issue play among the Chinese in mainland China? Not much really. I ask two Chinese friends who spend half of the year in Chinese cities; and according to them there is very little news about this issue in the Chinese newspapers. It comes out in the English Chinese newspapers which are read by foreigners and some upper class Chinese, but the ordinary Chinese does not know or have an opinion on this issue. The general public do not really care about foreign policy unless it affects them economically.
Then, we have to realize also that China is not a democracy and the press and all media are controlled by the government. The positions and other initiatives coming out in the English language newspapers are the official press releases of the Chinese government. Even the few news items that come out of the restricted social media are the government releases.
What can and should the Philippines do?
For starters, it should get the negotiations going as soon as possible while the UN Tribunal decision has still a significant legal and moral basis. Time will erode this legal and moral high ground and we will lose these advantages. China's territorial issues with Vietnam, Japan, and other countries should be thoroughly studied from the onset up to the most recent developments. Even the policies and initiatives of China in their autonomous regions like Tibet, Hong Kong, and the Uighurs in Xianjiang should be studied and evaluated. These are important, as China had a softer approach with Tibetans than with the Uighurs, and it is blowing hot and cold in treating the Hong Kong dissidents. Maybe it is because the Dalai Lama gets a lot of media exposure of his government in exile, and Hong Kong is more exposed to international media than Xianjiang.
I had two opportunities to observe former president Fidel Ramos when he was president and when I joined him in a country presentation in Malaysia after his term. FVR insists on thorough and complete staff work and preparation, so together with his stature and dignity, it was a good choice to make him a special envoy to China on this territorial issue. Secretary Perfecto Yasay was my colleague in a private institution many years ago and a friend as we were the Bisayan-speaking among the mostly Tagalog officers. He is a very competent lawyer and based on his stint in the Securities and Exchange Commission as an able administrator.
Negotiating and dealing with the Chinese authorities on the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) has to be the most formidable task due to the immediate implications and extensive future ramifications. While we can take some guidance from the past histories of China and Chinese government, the changing power dynamics in China, the shift to a market-based economy while retaining a communist authoritarian political government makes for extreme unpredictability and volatility. Inscrutable is a term I've heard and read about the Chinese government. And to think that Chinese President Xi Jinping is regarded as a moderate or centrist in his political leaning and governance philosophy.
To end this column, I would like to quote Confucius on the topic of negotiations, "Recompense injury with justice and recompense kindness with kindness," I do not know though if Confucius is still popular or respected in China.
- Latest
