Guide to the 85th Oscars

MANILA, Philippines - Predicting the winners of the Oscar Awards has become a sport of its own. Now on its 85th year, the Academy Awards, around this time, allow film buffs all over the world to engage in a pseudo-sport that may not be physically exhausting but still offers an adrenaline-inducing satisfaction of running a half-marathon. But trying to predict the winners is a grueling task that only those who have committed themselves to the art (and science, if you will) of studying the history, trends, sentiments of the Academy come out with near-perfect accuracy.

The Philippine STAR and this writer have been offering readers and Oscar-watchers an annual guide to the biggest awards show in the world for five years now. On Sunday evening, Feb. 24 (Monday morning in Manila), the Oscars will air live to more than half a billion people in 225 countries all over the world and while others are simply just excited to see Hollywood glamour, serious movie buffs are now scrambling to come up with their set of predictions on which actor or what movie will go home winners on Oscar night.

This year’s race, however, is one particularly tough and challenging contest to call. The awards season started with Oscar-winner Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, a chronicle of the CIA’s years-long hunt for Bin Laden, leading the race by copping almost every critics awards given in December but that early buzz only generated an unfortunate backlash after the CIA distanced itself from the movie and some US senators condemned the movie for its inaccurate depiction of torture in the successful pursuit of Bin Laden. Once the frontrunner, Bigelow’s follow-up to her Oscar-winning film The Hurt Locker lost momentum and could even end up with no Oscars at all despite receiving five nominations including Best Picture.

The collapse of Zero Dark Thirty paved the way for another Middle East drama to rise. Argo, Ben Affleck’s thrilling Iran-rescue caper, is undoubtedly the movie to beat now — and that is despite the fact that Affleck failed to receive a nomination for his masterful directorial work on the movie. Fortunately, the perceived snub proved to be a blessing in disguise as Hollywood rallied behind the movie and showered it with every major guild award it was up for after the Oscar nominations were announced in mid-January. And, if Argo should win for Best Picture, it will only be the fourth movie in history to win without a nomination for its director. The last movie to do it was 1990’s Driving Miss Daisy. The other two winners all go back to 1929 (Wings) and 1932 (Grand Hotel) — yes, during the early years of the Oscars.

The other seven nominees for Best Picture are Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. The Academy could still pull a last-minute surprise and name either Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook as the year’s best.

But whatever happens on Oscar night, this year’s edition is shaping up to be one for the record books.

Could Daniel Day-Lewis become the first actor in history to win three Best Actor trophies? Could French actress Emmanuel Riva become the oldest person (she turns 86 on the day of the Oscars!) to win an Oscar?

And, like Day-Lewis, could Hollywood legends Robert De Niro, Denzel Washington and Sally Field win their third Oscars as well and join the elite circle of actors with three Oscar wins? (Last year, Meryl Streep joined Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman and Walter Brennan in the exclusive group. Katharine Hepburn holds the record with four Oscars — all for Best Actress.)

If Day-Lewis, De Niro, Washington and Field are to earn their third Oscars, will the Academy decide to extend the favor to Steven Spielberg and hand him his third Oscar which will put him in the company of great directors Frank Capra and William Wyler? If he wins, Spielberg will be just one trophy shy in equaling the record four Oscars won by John Ford, who is considered by many as the greatest American filmmaker of all time.

Of all the possible scenarios, only Day-Lewis seems to have the strongest chance in making history on Oscar night. The British actor has virtually swept all Best Actor prizes leading to the Oscars for his bravura performance in Lincoln and if he does not end up winning the Oscar, it will be the biggest jaw-dropper of the night.

The other Best Actor nominees are Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) and Denzel Washington (Flight).

If the unthinkable happens and Day-Lewis is upset, look for Jackman to sing his way to the stage.

In the Best Actress race, the popular narrative all throughout the awards season was the tug-of-war between Jessica Chastain’s commanding turn as the tough CIA agent who found Bin Laden in Zero Dark Thirty and Jennifer Lawrence’s recovering sex addict in Silver Linings Playbook. Both stars shared the precursor awards haul with the younger Lawrence enjoying an edge over Chastain because of her part in the blockbuster hit The Hunger Games.

But when the nominations were announced, Riva surprised a lot of people when she snagged a nomination for her courageous performance in Amour — a tender story of enduring love between a couple in the final stages of their lives — and made the race three times more exciting. Riva first gained worldwide prominence when she appeared in the French classic Hiroshima Mon Amour more than half a century ago.

The Oscar race is always determined in the final days leading to the show and Riva has now quietly taken the lead after winning the BAFTA prize last week. On Sunday night, Riva will most likely upset both Chastain and Lawrence and take the Best Actress trophy. I can’t imagine how emotional that moment will be. Will the audience stand and sing her Happy Birthday?

Quvenzhane Wallis, who, at nine, is the youngest Oscar contender in history and former nominee Naomi Watts complete the list of nominees for Best Actress for their powerful turns as calamity victims in Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Impossible, respectively.

In the Best Supporting Actor race, the lack of a frontrunner makes the category a tough race to call with five Oscar winners in the mix: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Alan Arkin (Argo), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Philip Seymour-Hoffman (The Master) and Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook).

The general sentiment is that De Niro, who is considered by many as the greatest actor of his generation, will receive his third Oscar more than 30 years after winning for Raging Bull. Lee-Jones, who won the SAG trophy, and Waltz, who won the BAFTA, could spoil his victory, though.

My pick: De Niro by a very slim margin.

Anne Hathaway, who lost 25 pounds for her role as Fantine in Les Miserables has the lock in the Best Supporting Actress race after campaigning the longest and hardest among the four other nominees.

Sally Field, who will find herself not loved by the Academy anymore, is Hathaway’s strongest competitor for her turn as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln. Other nominees are Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Amy Adams (The Master) and Oscar-winner Helen Hunt in The Sessions.

In the Best Director race, the argument for Spielberg is also the same argument working against him. He maybe considered one of the greatest of the American filmmakers today but the Academy may not be ready yet to formally anoint him among the best of all time.

Austrian filmmaker Michael Haneke, whose work in Amour has been hailed all over the world, is my prohibitive choice in the absence of Affleck and Bigelow. Other nominees Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) have all equal chances in pulling an upset.

Oscar pool tiebreakers: Amour will receive the most Oscars with four — have I told you how wide open this year’s race is? I am keeping my fingers crossed. Argo will collect three Oscars. Life of Pi and Lincoln will receive two or three Oscars each. Les Miserables will win two Oscars and so will the visually stunning Anna Karenina.

Oscar night is going to be one exciting and unpredictable night. Make your predictions now. Yours could be better than mine.

Dame Shirley Bassey, Adele, Norah Jones and Barbra Streisand are scheduled to perform. Comedian Seth MacFarlane will host.