Normal temperature for Christmas season

CEBU, Philippines - Contrary to earlier predictions that a weak El Niño might develop that would make Christmas season warm, the current weather analysis indicates that the neutral condition is likely to persist during the “ber” months.

Recent monitoring from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) suggests that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has continually remained to be in neutral conditions as observed in the tropical Pacific.

This means neither an El Niño nor a La Niña is expected to occur for the remaining months of the year, said PAGASA-Cebu officer-in-charge Engr. Alfredo Quiblat Jr.

Earlier this year, PAGASA and other international-based weather forecasters predicted that a weak El Niño may occur before the year 2017 ends.

Quiblat describes an El Niño as a "large atmospheric and oceanographic phenomenon" that is commonly associated with drought in the Philippines.

He said this event is due to the abnormal increase of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

These changes in the Pacific and its overlying atmosphere typically occur in a cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ENSO is defined as a "naturally-occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific."

Climatic models showed recently that the sea surface temperature at the central and eastern Pacific remains to be in neutral values.

This neutral phase is a condition of the Pacific Ocean with "normal" sea surface temperature, said Quiblat.

Quiblat explained that the cool breeze normally experienced during December is due to the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan, that usually sets in on November.

These monsoon winds blow in northeast direction from the wintery mainland China that brings cooler breeze to the country’s shore. (FREEMAN)