Why DU30 will change?
It is somewhat ironic that the campaign slogan of the DU30 campaign was "Change is coming" and we have President Duterte now lecturing Senator Gordon that he will not change. Even with the theme of his recently organized grassroots movement, "Kilusang Pagbabago," meaning a movement for change, the President has yet to fulfill his promise to metamorphose into a calmer and more composed leader.
After cursing the Pope, the US ambassador, US President Obama, the UN and its President Ban Ki Mon, and the EU and threatening, among others, the Chief Supreme Court Justice Sereno, President DU30 has actually toned his actions and words down. Even if he brought up an inappropriate issue at the ASEAN meeting, he was really more civil in his speeches. His conciliatory response to Justice Sereno and his recent behavior toward the catholic Cardinals are exemplary. Then, his acquiescence to Ex-President Ramos and Justice Carpio's criticisms of him and his foreign policies is a demonstration of restraint on his part. I am of the opinion that there is an 80 percent probability that President will change for the better in the coming days.
Indicative of this highly probable metamorphosis is his first 100 days rating. Based on SWS surveys, the President got a high 84 percent rating last July which decreased to 76 percent rating after his first 100 days. DU30, using a 10-point scale rated himself with a 6, which I believe is an accurate self-assessment. Doing my own tabulation, I rated the President on ten issues such as peace and order, graft and corruption, economy, peace negotiations, poverty, bureaucracy improvement, foreign relations, governance, and the drug problem. Also using a 10-point scale, the average score came out to be 6.1. This just goes to show that DU30 is aware of what is happening and knows what he has to do.
In the last two weeks, DU30's rhetoric has been more sedate than angry. In the Philippine Business Conference, there was hardly any anger and cursing. Even his comment on actress Agot Isidro's Facebook post was very tame. His only angry and daring speech was when he was speaking to soldiers in a military camp declaring how he will embarrass the UN human rights investigators when they will come to the Philippines. So you see, DU30's ranting and ramblings reflect his milieu. He had been used to the Davaoeños and the Davao press's soft treatment of him, and the high ly informal down to earth environment where he had to speak. There are things that people will say at 2 or 3 o'clock in the morning among friends that you will not say in a business or diplomatic forum in broad daylight. A New York University Professor Emeritus of Linguistics, John Singler recently wrote about this phenomenon, and he called it "linguistic accommodation." People change their accent, tone, and manner of speaking depending on the audience, the counterparty, and the environment. This is done in the short term and over the long term and that we may not even be aware of it. In the coming trip of DU30 to Brunei and China, this will be very evident in his speeches and his press conferences.
The other big factor that will make DU30 change for the better will be the success of his 11-point socio-economic agenda. To push for the legislative approval of tax and bureaucratic reforms, rural and agricultural development, responsible parenthood, social protection, human capital and science/technology advancement, and the increase of the government's annual budget and revenue will need the support of not just of the Senate and Congress, but also of civil society, the private sector, the international community, and all Filipinos from different the socio-economic levels. These cannot be done if DU30 will continue to fight and anger these sectors instead of getting their cooperation. "The War on Drugs" will become a marginal success if majority of the 11- point agenda will not be achieved. DU30 will have lost the opportunity to really do something for the country and to its people. If it is destiny that made him president, then he should not waste or miss this opportunity to make this destiny good for the country and the people.
I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that there is still a 20 percent probability that DU30 will not change. The good news is that it takes at least 20 years of mismanagement and corruption to really mess up/destroy a country. This was demonstrated by Peron of Argentina, Marcos of the Philippines, and now Maduro of Venezuela. And the term of Philippine presidents is only six years.
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