Chance for rebooting Philippine-US relations?

When President Duterte delivered his expletive-laden tirade against US imperialism at a Chinese-Philippine Investment Forum in Beijing last October where he announced a “separation” from the United States, it was the culmination of months of anti-American rhetoric since he assumed office in June. He essentially repeated this message when he visited Russia and subsequently backed it up by announcing the downscaling of military cooperation with the US. Many wondered whether this heralded the complete repudiation of close ties with the US dating back more than six decades and a pivot towards America’s greatest rivals for global influence — never mind that we do not share the same values of democracy with them. 

Observers, including this column, who while supporting the pursuit of an independent foreign policy, cautioned that this zero-sum calculus of relations does not necessarily make for independence but rather a shift in dependency. For small powers like the Philippines, an independent foreign policy underpinned by the national interest requires finding the geopolitical sweet spot among competing powers. And that sweet spot lies where the benefits from such relations with these powers are maximized without surrendering sovereignty — or at least to the point where it is not egregious and dangerous. Recent events, however, seem to suggest that state of our relations with the US might be more nuanced than what the President’s rhetoric would suggest and that the opportunity for a reset in bilateral relations is there.  This also suggests that there is method to the madness, to the President’s sometimes head-spinning rhetoric. That to underestimate his pragmatism and knack for deal-making would be at one’s peril.

Last June 5, at the height of the attack of the Maute group, which claims affiliation with ISIS,  the United States delivered new military equipment consisting of various firearms and assault rubber boats to the Philippines to assist in the fight against terrorism. Apparently, the deliveries were just the latest in a series that have continued even after the President took office. According to press releases, in January the US delivered new military equipment to the Philippine Army and Marine Corps, including grenade launchers, sniper rifles, and surveillance drones. And in October last year, the US through Jusmag delivered pallets of new military equipment to the Philippine Marine Special Operations Group, Philippine National Police-Special Action Force and Philippine Coast Guard that included tactical radios, ballistic helmets and diving gear.

According to the US Embassy, over the past decade alone, the US has delivered and programmed P7.3 billion ($147 million) of military equipment to the AFP to enhance its counterterrorism capabilities. This is apart from other assistance that the AFP receives through US programs such as foreign military sales (FMS) and other grants from US agencies. The embassy calculates that in just the last five years, the US government has allocated P15 billion ($300 million) of grant funding to provide the AFP with equipment, including corresponding upgrades and training. On the ground, some personnel continue to remain to advise and assist Philippine security forces under an arrangement that started in 2002, following the World Trade Center bombing, and deactivated in 2015.

These events suggest the deeply rooted ties between the US and Philippine defense establishments developed over more than half century and shared interest in facing the challenge of terrorism belie the demise of Philippine-US security relations despite the President’s diatribes. There is also a practical side that is indispensable in the battlefield. While it is laudable to diversify the sources of our military’s requirements — we have been buying from Israel for example and both Russia and China offered — an important consideration also is familiarity, inter-operability, a record of reliability, and maintenance and support. This suggests that the President recognizes this as well although he deflects that as a DND decision. 

But before we jump to conclusion that the President has finally appreciated America as a friend of the Philippines, one should understand that the President’s anti-American sentiment is deep seated and one borne out his own ideological leanings and personal experience including during his time as mayor of Davao City. But he has also said in interviews that his anger was also precipitated by misinterpretations of his insults, criticism of his ongoing war on drugs, as well as what he saw as threats to cut aid.

President Donald Trump’s election has provided an opportunity for a reboot of relations following a rocky period during former President Obama’s last few months. Trump is not as fixated on human rights as a pre-condition for his more deal-making approach towards foreign relations. It does not mean that he has eschewed those values — it is just that he does not want it to get in the way of a successful deal. He has invited Duterte to the White House and has committed to attend the ASEAN summit in Manila. They have spoken on the phone at least twice (one of which the transcript made it into the public domain). Digong seems pleased with the turn of events to the point where he has said that his grief was with Obama and not with the American people. 

America’s geopolitical preoccupations remain unchanged — the Middle East, IS-inspired terrorism, and relations with Europe. While continuing to give importance to its strategic role in Asia, Trump’s focus on Asia has been confined so far to North Korea. I am not sure what this forebodes for the US position on the South China Sea.

Public utterances emanating from the recent visit of Admiral Scott Swift, Commander of the US Pacific Fleet stressed the US commitment to addressing shared regional security concerns including counterterrorism and piracy, while highlighting the strong defense ties between the US and the Philippines. The embassy added continued US support to Philippine efforts to strengthen national defense and improve its ability to respond to natural disasters, terrorism, piracy, and other transnational crimes. Interestingly, there was no mention of the South China Sea in contrast to his previous visit where he even flew on a surveillance mission over the disputed area. It may be that both sides realized that any public statements would be counter-productive particularly in view of President Duterte’s approach to the subject. We shall have to wait and see.

For now, the conditions are there for a reboot of Philippine-US relations. The administration should take advantage of this window to find that geopolitical sweet spot that would serve our national interest best.