Missing pics
One thing we are not getting clarity on is the state of our economy, now that we are under a (relatively) new administration.
Are we doing better? Are we doing worse? If we are (better or worse), what's behind it? Given all the international attention that has been unflattering, if not worrisome, I fret that investors are being turned off and moving their investments to a much more conducive jurisdiction.
Scanning the pages of the legitimate news sources (and not those annoying blogs that manufacture their own statistics), I don't see a satisfying quantity of hard facts, real highlights, of how our economy did over the short term. Are we winning investors over? Are they lining up in droves? Or are they cashing in their investments and parking their cash somewhere else?
What I can see is the worsening peso (now beyond Php50!) which could, after all, just be the result of the strengthening of the greenback. But is that the reason, or is it the liquidation of domestic investments?
Economic achievements used to be touted all the time under the previous administrations. It was always budget surplus, lower exchange rates, higher dollar remittances. Now, all we see are political noise as the different camps savagely attack each other. Where are the economic health checks?
Sometimes, we see figures of purported new Chinese investments. Sure, but when do they actually come in? Just the other day, Alibaba announced that it was opening a "trading and logistics hub" in Malaysia. For this purpose, it was pumping in a yet undisclosed amount and creating a zillion jobs. Why not pump all that cash into one of our economic zones? (Oh right, we have congestions at the port and in the runways of our main airport that won't be solved until, hmm, seven years from now?)
Why not avail of the IT experts we have been churning out? Why did Jack Ma choose Malaysia over the Philippines as an "electronic world trade platform"? Aren't we supposed to be enjoying the benefits of a new partnership?
How is the state of our BPO industry, anyway? Are the foreign businesses still opening their back offices here? Or are they turning more and more to India and other competitors? In March 2016, it was reported that 225,000 jobs would be created for the year by the BPO industry. Well, it's March, 2017. Did they come in?
Let's hope that we are viewed as a safe and convenient destination, as otherwise, all these millions (literally) of jobs at call centers that have miraculously proliferated will suddenly dry up. The booming office real estate sector will suddenly have an oversupply, and banks lending to these lessors will have non-performing loans, and suddenly have foreign exchange remittances will slow. Disaster!
And let's not even get into the question of what is the real impact of the closure of mining companies. That one is really hard to calculate, because as the environmentalists always stress, cleanup costs of environmental damage are never imputed in calculating the beneficial contributions of an industry. Once that's factored in, then perhaps we can do a real cost-benefit analysis that can appease both big business and climate activists.
Pardon me for painting such a paranoid picture, it's probably my (cough) great training as an economics major. (I was an average student, by the way, but I must have picked up real useful stuff).
In three months, we will be getting the first annual report from newly elected President Duterte. Hopefully, there will be some good news delivered. I, for one, am tired of seeing bad news in my feed.
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